The future of homelessness

Abstract

T he past decade has made clear that homelessness is not simply a passing phenomenon requiring heroic volunteer efforts on the part of a few until the temporary crisis passes. Yet that has been the predominant response to the problem. Both politically and programmatically, and both in the individual case and at the social problem level, the tendency has been to view the issue as a temporary phenomenon. The temptation is to think: "If we can just get through...things will get back to normal." Many professionals working with the homelessness problem realize that it is necessary to turn the corner from a temporary, emergency response to a long-range strategy. Both social responsibility and realism require it.This essay is based on interviews and observations in more than twenty cities and localities around the country and on the increasing literature and data about the homeless problem. The approach is a set of three scenarios presented in the present tense even though our time frame is 10 to 20 years hence. The scenarios are not intended to be mutually exclusive; parts of each could occur simultaneously. The scenarios, we think, are both plausible and thought-provoking. Some elements assume no change in public policy; others are built around specific public policy interventions. Following the scenarios we offer some commentary and inferences for public policy.