The Great Replacement Conspiracy: How the Perceived Ousting of Whites Can Evoke Violent Extremism and Islamophobia

Abstract

Increased immigration and demographic changes have not only resulted in political pushback, but also in violent attacks against immigrants. Several recent terrorist attacks committed by White supremacists invoke rhetoric around a deliberate attempt to make Whites extinct and replace them with non-Western immigrants. Yet, while it is widely acknowledged among extremism researchers that this perception of orchestrated extinction or replacement has tremendous potential to lead to violent extremism, its consequences have not yet been directly examined. Using the Scandinavian context (e.g., Denmark and Norway), in two correlational studies and one experiment, we provide evidence that this perception is associated with the persecution of Muslims, violent intentions, and Islamophobia. Further, we demonstrate that these associations are mediated by symbolic threats. Conspiracy beliefs that one’s group is being replaced seems to drive hostile intergroup attitudes. We discuss the societal implications of this finding (i.e., generating fear, polarization and hostile public opinion towards immigrants).

Conspiracy theories as opportunistic attributions of power

“…On the other hand, some conspiracy theories motivate discrimination against vulnerable minorities [30,17] and enhance prejudice towards these groups [17,18,31]. The fact that in some instances, conspiracy theories target relatively powerless groups brings an important nuance to the assumption that conspiracy theories are beliefs held by the powerless against the powerful and, hence, challenge power hierarchies.…”

“…For instance, as highlighted earlier, proponents of the great replacement conspiracy theory consider that the elites (i.e., the media, the government, intellectuals) are involved in the conspiracy [32]. In this regard, it is interesting that in research examining belief in conspiracy theories targeting Muslims, some measures include the involvement of authorities [38,41], while others do not [18,19]. Moreover, Muslim immigrants may be perceived as benefitting from the support of wealthy Muslim countries (e.g., Arab Emirates), or powerful Muslim organizations (e.g., the Muslim Brotherhood).…”

“…However, objective power imbalances are not the only threat capable of triggering conspiracy theories. For instance, the presence of immigrants may elicit feelings of symbolic and realistic threat among members of the majority [18], even though immigrants may be relatively powerless.…”

“…Endowing threatening outgroups with power and intentions to conspire may be viewed as opportunistic, as it may be appealing in a variety of situations. Conspiracy theories may allow individuals to justify taking violent actions, whether it is against powerful enemies [45,46] or stigmatised minorities [18], to protect an ingroup's interests. Conspiracy theories may also allow people to externally attribute an ingroup's defeat against a competing outgroup [23,27].…”

Strategically Hijacking Victimhood: A Political Communication Strategy in the Discourse of Viktor Orbán and Donald Trump

“…The combination of the 2015 refugee crisis and the actual demographic decline of white Hungarians has provided fertile ground for Orbán's endorsement of the conspiratorial Great Replacement Theory (GRT)-a prevalent conspiracy narrative that centers on [white] children being replaced by nonwhites (Obaidi et al 2021). The GRT was also espoused by groups at the attempted U.S. Capitol coup on January 6, 2021 (Armaly, Buckley, and Enders 2022).…”