The Great Society, Reagan's Revolution, and Generations of Presidential Voting

Abstract

We build a model of American presidential voting in which the cumulative impression left by political events determines the preferences of voters. The impression varies by voter, depending on their age at the time the events took place. We use the Gallup presidential approval‐rating time series to reflect the major events that influence voter preferences, with the most influential occurring during a voter's teenage and early adult years. Our fitted model is predictive, explaining more than 80% of the variation in voting trends over the last half‐century. It is also interpretable, dividing voters into five meaningful generations: New Deal Democrats, Eisenhower Republicans, 1960s Liberals, Reagan Conservatives, and Millennials. We present each generation in context of the political events that shaped its preferences, beginning in 1940 and ending with the 2016 election.

Populism in youth: Do experiences in school matter?

“…With growing political awareness, while youth are still searching for identity, they are particularly susceptible to influences on their political positioning. The impact of political events (e.g., elections) is most pronounced during adolescence, with the period of increased sensitivity stretching well into childhood (Bartels & Jackman, 2014) and young adulthood (Ghitza et al, 2022). The importance of this period is further supported by research showing that political attitudes such as ethnocentrism and economic egalitarianism increasingly stabilize throughout adolescence and young adulthood (Rekker et al, 2015).…”

Resentment and Polarization in Indonesia

“…If resentment is concentrated among the young, its importance may grow as younger people age into the larger demographics of the voting population. Age and cohort effects in voting populations are also strongly connected to key moments of political socialization-moments which tend to shape political preferences of age cohorts as they move through the population (Ghitza, Gelman, and Auerbach 2019).…”

War-Time Military Service Can Affect Partisan Preferences

“…The starting point of our theoretical framework is that military service provides an opportunity for soldiers to form their worldview and develop their basic attitudes and preferences (Krebs 2004, 90-94). Military service often begins during impressionable years around the age of 18 (CIA 2022), a period in which individual political preferences are formed (Ghitza, Gelman and Auerbach 2022).…”

“…90–94). Military service often begins during impressionable years around the age of 18 (CIA, 2022), a period in which individual political preferences are often formed (Ghitza et al, 2022). Indeed, previous research demonstrates that military service has a socializing effect that shapes individuals’ attitudes on political issues and their views of other groups (Grossman et al, 2015; Lesschaeve, 2020; Littman, 2018; Lupton, 2022; Samii, 2013).…”

“…Finally, we expect that the effects of participation in blunder wars will influence soldiers’ support for incumbent parties well after a war is over and will not be limited to the immediate period after the war. This expectation is rooted in studies regarding the long-term effects of personal experiences during impressionable years (Ghitza et al, 2022; Krosnick & Alwin, 1989; Sears & Valentino, 1997). That said, we do not have clear priors regarding whether and how the effects of participation in war decay over time.…”