The herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 among the population of the Nizhny Novgorod region amid the COVID-19 epidemic

Abstract

The aim of the study was to assess the seroprevalence to the SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid in the population of the Nizhny Novgorod region against the background of COVID-19.Materials and methods. The work was carried out according to a unified methodology developed by Rospotrebnadzor with the participation of the St. Pasteur. The selection of volunteers for the study was carried out by the method of questioning and randomization. The exclusion criterion was active COVID-19 infection at the time of the survey. A total of 2829 volunteers were surveyed, divided into seven age groups. Venous blood samples were taken from all volunteers from EDTA vacutainers. In the blood plasma, the content of specific IgG to the SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid was determined by the enzyme immunoassay.Results. The population level of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 among the surveyed volunteers was 8,4% (95% CI 7,4–9,5). The largest proportion of seroprevalent persons was found among children aged 1–6 years — 15,9% (95% CI 8,2–26,7), the smallest in the group of volunteers aged 18–29 years — 6,0% (95% CI 3,8–8,9). During 3-stage serological monitoring, the proportion of seroprevalent volunteers increased to 22,5% (95% CI 20,3–24,9)%, or almost 2 times from the initial level (p<0,05). of the population of the Semenovsky district (22,7% (95% CI 10,9–41,8)), the smallest — in the city of Dzerzhinsk (2,4% (95% CI 0,5–7,1)%) Among convalescents after COVID-19, specific antibodies were detected in 47,2% (95% CI 30,5–69,6), which is 5,6 times higher than the average for the population. Among those who had verified contact with patients, specific IgG were detected in 17,6% (95% CI 12,9–23,5), which is 2,1 times higher than the average for the population. Among asymptomatic persons who had a positive PCR result, 53,3% (95% CI 30,5–86,6) were seropositive, which is 6,3 times higher than the average for the population. Of 225 seropositive people, 188 (88,4% (95% CI 76,6–101,6)) had the disease asymptomatic.Conclusion. The relatively low proportion of seroprevalent persons among the population may indicate a significant risk of further development of the epidemic process caused by COVID-19 in the territory of the Nizhny Novgorod region.