Abstract. The accurate estimation of population living in the low-elevation coastal zone (LECZ) – and at heightened risk from sea level rise – is critically
important for policymakers and risk managers worldwide. This
characterization of potential exposure depends on robust
representations not only of coastal elevation and spatial population data but also
of settlements along the urban–rural continuum. The empirical basis for LECZ
estimation has improved considerably in the 13 years since it was first
estimated that 10 % of the world's population – and an even greater share
of the urban population – lived in the LECZ (McGranahan et al., 2007a). Those
estimates were constrained in several ways, not only most notably by a single
10 m LECZ but also by a dichotomous urban–rural proxy and population
from a single source. This paper updates those initial estimates with newer,
improved inputs and provides a range of estimates, along with sensitivity
analyses that reveal the importance of understanding the strengths and
weaknesses of the underlying data. We estimate that between 750 million and
nearly 1.1 billion persons globally, in 2015, live in the ≤ 10 m LECZ,
with the variation depending on the elevation and population data sources
used. The variations are considerably greater at more disaggregated levels,
when finer elevation bands (e.g., the ≤ 5 m LECZ) or differing
delineations between urban, quasi-urban and rural populations are
considered. Despite these variations, there is general agreement that the
LECZ is disproportionately home to urban dwellers and that the urban
population in the LECZ has grown more than urban areas outside the LECZ
since 1990. We describe the main results across these new elevation,
population and urban-proxy data sources in order to guide future research
and improvements to characterizing risk in low-elevation coastal zones (https://doi.org/10.7927/d1x1-d702, CIESIN and CIDR, 2021).