Knowledge of galaxy evolution rests on cross-sectional observations of different objects at different times. Understanding of galaxy evolution rests on longitudinal interpretations of how these data relate to individual objects moving through time. The connection between the two is often assumed to be clear, but we use a simple "physics-free" model to show that it is not and that exploring its nuances can yield new insights. Comprising nothing more than 2094 loosely constrained lognormal star formation histories (SFHs), the model faithfully reproduces the following data it was not designed to match: stellar mass functions at z ≤ 8; the slope of the star formation rate/stellar mass relation (the SF "Main Sequence") at z ≤ 6; the mean sSFR(≡ SFR/M * ) of low-mass galaxies at z ≤ 7; "fast-" and "slow-track" quenching; downsizing; and a correlation between formation timescale and sSFR(M * ,t) similar to results from simulations that provides a natural connection to bulge growth. We take these findings-which suggest that quenching is the natural downturn of all SFHs affecting galaxies at rates/times correlated with their densities-to mean that: (1) models in which galaxies are diversified on Hubble timescales by something like initial conditions rival the dominant grow-and-quench framework as good descriptions of the data; or (2) absent spatial information, many metrics of galaxy evolution are too undiscriminating-if not inherently misleading-to confirm a unique explanation. We outline future tests of our model but stress that, even if ultimately incorrect, it illustrates how exploring different paradigms can aid learning and, we hope, more detailed modeling efforts.
TOWARDS AN EXPLICITLY QUENCHING-FREE WORLDVIEWOf the papers mentioned in Section 1, Oemler et al. (2013, hereafter O13) and G13 are most germane to the present discussion. These works summarize the motivation and construction of the G13 model, respectively.
Motivation: A Diversity of Smooth SFHsO13 reached two conclusions based on analyses of specific star formation rate (sSFR ≡ SFR/M * ) distributions at z 1.The first was that canonical SFH parameterizations-τ and delayed-τ models (Tinsley 1972;Gavazzi et al. 2002)-could not explain the global decline in sSFRs observed over the above interval: they cannot generate both the tail of high sSFRs at z = 1 and the low values seen today. This problemcentral to understanding how G13 bypasses explicit quenching (Section 3.2.1, Appendix A)-is not small: ∼ 25% of z ≈ 0 galaxies with M * 4 × 10 10 M ⊙ -a fair fraction of the Universe's stellar mass-cannot have evolved via the above prescriptions (see also Dressler et al. 2016).The second conclusion was that large discontinuities-e.g., starbursts-cannot be invoked to remedy this discrepancy. Such events (briefly) modulate the sSFRs of individual galaxies, but they cannot drive the evolution of that quantity for whole populations over many Gyr (as is necessary): if some objects are in high states, others are in low ones, largely nulling their global effect (O13 Figu...