The impact of differences in large-scale circulation output from climate models on the regional modeling of ozone and PM

Manders, Astrid; Meijgaard, E. van; Mues, Andrea; Kranenburg, Richard; Ulft, L. H. van; Schaap, Martijn

doi:10.5194/acp-12-9441-2012

Cited by 59 publications

(66 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Several other studies have focused only on the regional impact of climate change (Langner et al, 2012a, b;Andersson and Engardt, 2010;Manders et al, 2012;Hedegaard et al, 2008Hedegaard et al, , 2013Katragkou et al, 2011). They found a general increase in ozone concentrations owing to increasing biogenic emissions and favourable conditions for the build-up of ozone pollution as a result of increased temperature, more frequent summer blocking and heat waves and increased short-wave radiation.…”

Section: Role Of Biogenics In the Formation Of Ozonementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Bloomer et al (2009) estimated the magnitude of these effects from surface ozone observations over the US at about 2.2 ppb per degree Celcius and Pfister et al (2014) showed increasing summertime ozone levels under various climate scenarios. These effects have been quantified over Europe in several model studies Meleux et al, 2007;Langner et al, 2012a, b;Andersson and Engardt, 2010;Manders et al, 2012;Hedegaard et al, 2008Hedegaard et al, , 2013bKatragkou et al, 2011). The general order of magnitude of the climate penalty over Europe is a few ppb by the middle of the century.…”

Section: Hemispheric Transport Of Ozone and It Precursors In The Polimentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tropospheric ozone and its precursors from the urban to the global scale from air quality to short-lived climate forcer

et al. 2015

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Abstract. Ozone holds a certain fascination in atmospheric science. It is ubiquitous in the atmosphere, central to tropospheric oxidation chemistry, yet harmful to human and ecosystem health as well as being an important greenhouse gas. It is not emitted into the atmosphere but is a byproduct of the very oxidation chemistry it largely initiates. Much effort is focused on the reduction of surface levels of ozone owing to its health and vegetation impacts, but recent efforts to achieve reductions in exposure at a country scale have proved difficult to achieve owing to increases in background ozone at the zonal hemispheric scale. There is also a growing realisation that the role of ozone as a short-lived climate pollutant could be important in integrated air quality climate change mitigation. This review examines current understanding of the processes regulating tropospheric ozone at global to local scales from both measurements and models. It takes the view that knowledge across the scales is important for dealing with air quality and climate change in a synergistic manner. The review shows that there remain a number of clear challenges for ozone such as explaining surface trends, incorporating new chemical understanding, ozone-climate coupling, and a better assessment of impacts. There is a clear and present need to treat ozone across the range of scales, a transboundary issue, but with an emphasis on the hemispheric scales. New observational opportunities are offered both by satellites and small sensors that bridge the scales.

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Section: Role Of Biogenics In the Formation Of Ozonementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Hemispheric Transport Of Ozone and It Precursors In The Polimentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropospheric ozone and its precursors from the urban to the global scale from air quality to short-lived climate forcer

et al. 2015

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“…Precipitation is highly variable in time and space, and fields computed by climate models often do not capture the frequency and/or intensity distribution of events correctly (Piani et al, 2009;Manders et al, 2012;Dai, 2006). Additionally, sub-grid topographic features may place large controls on the distribution of precipitation events (Leung and Ghan, 1998).…”

Section: Snow Correction Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Large-area land surface simulations in heterogeneous terrain driven by global data sets: application to mountain permafrost

2015

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Abstract. Numerical simulations of land surface processes are important in order to perform landscape-scale assessments of earth systems. This task is problematic in complex terrain due to (i) high-resolution grids required to capture strong lateral variability, and (ii) lack of meteorological forcing data where they are required. In this study we test a topography and climate processor, which is designed for use with large-area land surface simulation, in complex and remote terrain. The scheme is driven entirely by globally available data sets. We simulate air temperature, ground surface temperature and snow depth and test the model with a large network of measurements in the Swiss Alps. We obtain rootmean-squared error (RMSE) values of 0.64 • C for air temperature, 0.67-1.34 • C for non-bedrock ground surface temperature, and 44.5 mm for snow depth, which is likely affected by poor input precipitation field. Due to this we trial a simple winter precipitation correction method based on melt dates of the snowpack. We present a test application of the scheme in the context of simulating mountain permafrost. The scheme produces a permafrost estimate of 2000 km 2 , which compares well to published estimates. We suggest that this scheme represents a useful step in application of numerical models over large areas in heterogeneous terrain.

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“…A more elaborate description can be found in the model documentation (Manders-Groot et al, 2016a) 4.1 Domain, grid LOTOS-EUROS is a regional model on a regular longitudelatitude grid. It is typically used with a resolution of 0.5 • × 0.25 • on a domain covering most of Europe and the Mediterranean Sea, but can be applied anywhere and with arbitrary grid resolution, provided that the horizontal resolution is not smaller than about 3 km.…”

Section: Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The gas-phase chemistry is a condensed version of CBM-IV (Gery et al, 1989), with some modifications in reaction rates, 4152 A. M. M. Manders et al: Curriculum vitae of the LOTOS-EUROS (v2.0) chemistry transport model and can be found in Manders-Groot et al (2016a). A kinetic pre-processor is used which makes it relatively straightforward to add or modify chemical reactions.…”

Section: Chemistrymentioning

confidence: 99%

Curriculum vitae of the LOTOS–EUROS (v2.0) chemistry transport model

et al. 2017

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Abstract. The development and application of chemistry transport models has a long tradition. Within the Netherlands the LOTOS-EUROS model has been developed by a consortium of institutes, after combining its independently developed predecessors in 2005. Recently, version 2.0 of the model was released as an open-source version. This paper presents the curriculum vitae of the model system, describing the model's history, model philosophy, basic features and a validation with EMEP stations for the new benchmark year 2012, and presents cases with the model's most recent and key developments. By setting the model developments in context and providing an outlook for directions for further development, the paper goes beyond the common model description.With an origin in ozone and sulfur modelling for the models LOTOS and EUROS, the application areas were gradually extended with persistent organic pollutants, reactive nitrogen, and primary and secondary particulate matter. After the combination of the models to LOTOS-EUROS in 2005, the model was further developed to include new source parametrizations (e.g. road resuspension, desert dust, wildfires), applied for operational smog forecasts in the Netherlands and Europe, and has been used for emission scenarios, source apportionment, and long-term hindcast and climate change scenarios. LOTOS-EUROS has been a front-runner in data assimilation of ground-based and satellite observations and has participated in many model intercomparison studies. The model is no longer confined to applications over Europe but is also applied to other regions of the world, e.g. China. The increasing interaction with emission experts has also contributed to the improvement of the model's performance. The philosophy for model development has always been to use knowledge that is state of the art and proven, to keep a good balance in the level of detail of process description and accuracy of input and output, and to keep a good record on the effect of model changes using benchmarking and validation. The performance of v2.0 with respect to EMEP observations is good, with spatial correlations around 0.8 or higher for concentrations and wet deposition. Temporal correlations are around 0.5 or higher. Recent innovative applications include source apportionment and data assimilation, particle number modelling, and energy transition scenarios including corresponding land use changes as well as Saharan dust forecasting. Future developments would enable more flexibility with respect to model horizontal and vertical resolution and further detailing of model input data.Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.

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The impact of differences in large-scale circulation output from climate models on the regional modeling of ozone and PM

Cited by 59 publications

References 39 publications

Tropospheric ozone and its precursors from the urban to the global scale from air quality to short-lived climate forcer

Tropospheric ozone and its precursors from the urban to the global scale from air quality to short-lived climate forcer

Large-area land surface simulations in heterogeneous terrain driven by global data sets: application to mountain permafrost

Curriculum vitae of the LOTOS–EUROS (v2.0) chemistry transport model

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