The impact of empirical accuracy studies on time series analysis and forecasting

Armstrong, JS

doi:10.1016/s0169-2070(96)00724-8

Cited by 1 publication

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“…Support for empirical forecasting research is also relatively common in the forecasting literature and is epitomised by the three "M" (Makridakis) forecasting competitions (Makridakis et al, 1982(Makridakis et al, , 1993Makridakis and Hibon, 2000). One of the primary motivations for conducting empirical forecasting research is the requirement for organisations to identify and apply accurate, cost effective forecasting methods (Armstrong, 1997;Makridakis, 1993b). This study is also motivated by the need to identify and apply an accurate, cost effective forecasting method for informing business decision making in an ERP environment (Catt, 2007b).…”

Section: Forecasting Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing forecast model performance in an ERP environment

Catt

Barbour

Robb

2008

Industrial Management &Amp; Data Systems

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Purpose -The paper aims to describe and apply a commercially oriented method of forecast performance measurement (cost of forecast error -CFE) and to compare the results with commonly adopted statistical measures of forecast accuracy in an enterprise resource planning (ERP) environment. Design/methodology/approach -The study adopts a quantitative methodology to evaluate the nine forecasting models (two moving average and seven exponential smoothing) of SAP w 's ERP system. Event management adjustment and fitted smoothing parameters are also assessed. SAP w is the largest European software enterprise and the third largest in the world, with headquarters in Walldorf, Germany. Findings -The findings of the study support the adoption of CFE as a more relevant commercial decision-making measure than commonly applied statistical forecast measures. Practical implications -The findings of the study provide forecast model selection guidance to SAP w 's 12 þ million worldwide users. However, the CFE metric can be adopted in any commercial forecasting situation. Originality/value -This study is the first published cost assessment of SAP w 's forecasting models.

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