The impact of sampling methods on evacuation model convergence and egress time

Lovreglio, Ruggiero; Spearpoint, Michael; Girault, Mathilde

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2018.12.015

Cited by 24 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Identical to the results of the 2011 survey, the data indicates that the most important general factor affecting the selection of a pedestrian evacuation model is the verification and validation: the level of reliability a model has to accurately represent reality is of key importance to users. It is evident a number of pedestrian evacuation model developers also agree with many of them producing dedicated validation and verification documentation or publishing papers presenting results of validation case studies, see for instance [35][36][37][38][39]. Furthermore, the development of international efforts to provide standard methods for conducting validation/verification of evacuations models [40][41][42][43][44] (including an ongoing effort performed within the Technical Committee 92 on Fire Safety of the International Standards Organization, ISO), will facilitate users being able to asses and compare more easily pedestrian evacua- tion models.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Online Survey of Pedestrian Evacuation Model Usage and Users

Lovreglio

Ronchi

Kinsey³

2019

Fire Technol

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Pedestrian evacuation models are often used to assess life safety in the performance-based design process within fire safety engineering. Within this paper, a summary of data collected via an international online survey regarding the models and users' experiences and needs is presented. This survey consisted of 22 questions focusing on: the assessment of the pedestrian evacuation model user community; their stated importance of model features to select a model; usage/awareness of models; knowledge of model validation and verification; training; and usage of multiple models. As such, the survey allowed the collection of information useful for instructing future pedestrian evacuation model development. The survey represents an expanded version of a previous survey conducted by the authors in 2011. Results with the previous survey were compared to identify any changes in preference and usage by pedestrian evacuation model users. The survey was completed by 234 respondents from 41 countries. The respondents had a wide range of education and occupational backgrounds and use models for a variety of different purposes. The results identified a total of 72 pedestrian evacuation models currently in use and indicated the most known models. In addition, the most used models were identified, and the results highlighted that the three key factors used to select a pedestrian evacuation model are overall consistent with the results of the 2011 survey: verification and validation, documentation, and data output of the model.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Online Survey of Pedestrian Evacuation Model Usage and Users

Lovreglio

Ronchi

Kinsey³

2019

Fire Technol

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“…[59] considered four sampling approaches and conducted eight trial evacuations using a classroom-based scenario. As a result, the authors show how different sampling methods can affect the number of simulations needed for reaching the convergence [59].…”

Section: State Of the Art In Classrooms And Lecture Halls' Evacuationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…">State of the Art in Classrooms and Lecture Halls' EvacuationThe evacuation process from classrooms and lecture halls has attracted a series of researchers, each of them trying to address the problem from different angles. As a result, the researches made Symmetry 2020, 12, 627 3 of 25 within this area have focused on, but have not been limited to: methodological aspects needed to be considered when conducting a simulation [59], the variables needed to be taken into account [60], conducting on-the-field trials in order to extract behavioral characteristics of the evacuees [18], the effect of various room settings on the evacuation process and overall evacuation time [61,62], the role of guidance [63], etc. As the literature addressing the classrooms and lecture halls evacuation is vast, in the following, only some of the above aspects will be discussed, on the purpose of offering a general field coverage in terms of methodology, means and expected results.From a methodological point of view, in a recent paper, Lovreglio et al[59] considered four sampling approaches and conducted eight trial evacuations using a classroom-based scenario.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As the literature addressing the classrooms and lecture halls evacuation is vast, in the following, only some of the above aspects will be discussed, on the purpose of offering a general field coverage in terms of methodology, means and expected results.From a methodological point of view, in a recent paper, Lovreglio et al[59] considered four sampling approaches and conducted eight trial evacuations using a classroom-based scenario. As a result, the authors show how different sampling methods can affect the number of simulations needed for reaching the convergence [59].A questionnaire has been used as the main tool for studying child evacuation behavior by Chen et al [52]. Based on the answers received, the authors stated that in the child evacuation process, the position, congestion, group and backtracking behavior have a significant impact on the chosen route, while gender and guidance have proved not to have a noticeable impact [52].…”

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confidence: 99%

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Investigating the Exits’ Symmetry Impact on the Evacuation Process of Classrooms and Lecture Halls: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

et al. 2020

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As the evacuation problem has attracted and continues to attract a series of researchers due to its high importance both for saving human lives and for reducing the material losses in such situations, the present paper analyses whether the evacuation doors configuration in the case of classrooms and lecture halls matters in reducing the evacuation time. For this aim, eighteen possible doors configurations have been considered along with five possible placements of desks and chairs. The doors configurations have been divided into symmetrical and asymmetrical clusters based on the two doors positions within the room. An agent-based model has been created in NetLogo which allows a fast configuration of the classrooms and lecture halls in terms of size, number of desks and chairs, desks and chair configuration, exits' size, the presence of fallen objects, type of evacuees and their speed. The model has been used for performing and analyzing various scenarios. Based on these results, it has been observed that, in most cases, the symmetrical doors configurations provide good/optimal results, while only some of the asymmetrical doors configurations provide comparable/better results. The model is configurable and can be used in various scenarios.Symmetry 2020, 12, 627 2 of 25 demonstrated the beneficial effect of such an obstacle, a series of other studies have followed [28], some of them revealing a smaller positive effect [29,30], others stating the influence based on the dimension and position of the obstacle [31], while others proving the ineffectiveness of such a situation [32,33]. In a recent paper, Zuriguel et al. [34] studied the effect of an obstacle placed in front of the exit, and the authors concluded that this situation slightly favors the evacuation of the persons near the wall, prompting a debate on the role of the column in an evacuation process. Even more, the role of the exit location is questioned in Wu et al. [3], in which the authors conduct an experiment using mice and changing the position of the exit door by moving it from the long to the short wall of the test container.Depending on the type of the environment in which the evacuation might take place, a series of studies in the literature have addressed the evacuation of ships [35], metro stations [11,36], metro trains and high-speed trains [37,38], hospitals [39,40], stadiums [41], concert halls [42], supermarkets [43], rooms [34,44], auditorium [45], classrooms and lecture halls [18,46,47], ascending stair evacuation [48], large indoor building spaces [49], large buildings [50], large exterior spaces [51], etc.Among the public building evacuation situations, classrooms and the lecture halls hold an important place, as these spaces generally present a high population density and a restrained evacuation capacity [18,52]. The seat and desk placement among these types of learning rooms can take various forms, which, combined with the exit doors' positions, can have an impact on the overall evacuation time [53]. Furthermore, the complexity of the i...

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“…These uncertainties can be simulated by randomly sampling suitable distribution functions for those attributes. A simple random approach is adopted in Monte Carlo egress simulation although other possible sampling methods could be utilised [10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determining Confidence Intervals, and Convergence, for Parameters in Stochastic Evacuation Models

Grandison

2020

Fire Technol

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An issue when using stochastic egress models is how many simulations are required to accurately represent the modelled scenario? Engineers are mostly interested in a representative Total Evacuation Time (TET). However, the convergence of the TET may not ensure that the full range of evacuation dynamics has been adequately represented. The average total egress curve (AC) has been suggested as an improved measure. Unfortunately, defining a confidence interval (CI) for the AC is problematic. CIs can robustly quantify the precision of many statistics and have been used to define convergence in egress modelling and other research fields. This paper presents a novel application of bootstrapping, functional analysis measures (FAMs), and a bisection algorithm, to derive three FAM-based CIs representing the precision of the AC. These CIs were tested using a theoretical model to demonstrate the consistency of the coverage probability, the actual percentage of CIs that contain the theoretical parameter, with the nominal 95% confidence level (NCL). For two of the FAMbased CIs, it was found that the coverage probability was between 94.2% and 95.6% for all tested sample sizes between 10 and 4000 simulations. The third FAM-based CI's coverage probability was always greater than the NCL and was a conservative estimate, but this presented no problems in practice. A FAM-based CI may suggest if there is more or less variability in an earlier phase of the evacuation. A convergence scheme based on statistical precision, CI widths, is proposed and verified. The method can be extended to other statistics.

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The impact of sampling methods on evacuation model convergence and egress time

Cited by 24 publications

References 30 publications

An Online Survey of Pedestrian Evacuation Model Usage and Users

An Online Survey of Pedestrian Evacuation Model Usage and Users

Investigating the Exits’ Symmetry Impact on the Evacuation Process of Classrooms and Lecture Halls: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

Determining Confidence Intervals, and Convergence, for Parameters in Stochastic Evacuation Models

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