The Impossible Trinity in China

China's corn and biofuel policies and agricultural trade: Projections from an international agricultural commodity market model

“…After China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, its agricultural imports persistently increased from $15.4 billion in 2001 to $170.8 billion in 2020 (USDA GATS, 2021). However, China's pursuit of self‐sufficiency in food production has restricted its agricultural imports far below the import potential under free trade (Li, Hayes, et al, 2018). For example, before 2019, China's corn imports never exceeded its tariff rate quota (TRQ) of 7.2 million tons despite a relatively high domestic corn price relative to the world price.…”

“…The title of Li, Hayes et al (2018) "The Impossible Trinity of China's Corn Related Policies" helps motivate this study and summarizes our results. China has put in place a set of mutually inconsistent agricultural policies-it cannot achieve its goal of self-sufficiency in grains and meats while also improving diets and enforcing an E10 mandate.…”

“…. However, China's pursuit of self-sufficiency in food production has restricted its agricultural imports far below the import potential under free trade (Li, Hayes, et al, 2018). For example, before 2019, China's corn imports never exceeded its tariff rate quota (TRQ) of 7.2 million tons despite a relatively high domestic corn price relative to the world price.…”