The influence of solar variability on Atlantic basin tropical cyclones: a 10-year study

Abstract

The Sun is a dynamic celestial body that changes as the universe progresses through space and time. The Sun is by far the most important driving force of the climate system. This paper aims to study the impact of solar variability on our planet’s extreme weather, namely tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. From the year 2010 to 2020, we have analyzed the trend of Thermosphere Climate Index (TCI) values, Tropical Cyclone (TC) counts, and its maximum wind speeds. The r value presented by the Pearson’s correlation coefficient confirms a strong anti-correlation relationship of -0.719 between the TCI value and TC count. Meanwhile, the observed cyclone wind speed shows a moderately strong negative correlation with TCI values, with an r value of -0.520. The seasonal fluctuations in TCs are believed to be caused by a shift in thermal energy within the thermosphere.