“…The broader mediation literature is primarily focused on the role and effectiveness of mediation in conflict termination (e.g., Bercovitch and DeRouen, 2005;Clayton and Dorussen, 2022), with fewer studies concerned with conflict prevention (e.g., Eisenkopf and Bächtiger, 2013;Sheranova, 2020;Wolff, 2020). The key findings across these studies, echoed also in the literature on OSCE mediation (e.g., Guliyev and Gawrich, 2021;Hill, 2010;Lanz, 2016;Remler, 2016;2021), are that mediation is more likely to succeed when local parties are committed to a settlement and have the capacity and resources to agree and implement onefactors that can be substantially shaped by third-party support.…”