The lucky high schooler hypothesis: Nuevo León from a comparative perspective

Abstract

This paper addresses the influence of higher education and parental socioeconomic status on the offspring’s probability of a high socioeconomic destination in three residence areas of Mexico: Southern Region, Mexico City and Nuevo Leon. By estimating a structural probit model with instrumental variables (and with data from two ESRU-EMOVI surveys), we find that higher education increases individuals’ probability of being positioned at the third welfare tertile and that education probability premiums run in opposition to social reproduction. Our results reject what we call “the lucky high schooler hypothesis”. In Nuevo Leon, the probability of a high destination is higher than in Mexico City or the Southern Region. Nonetheless, in Nuevo Leon, higher education probability premiums are smaller than in Mexico City or in the South and show a small dependence on socioeconomic origin, hence lower social reproduction. In contrast, probability premiums to higher education are greater in the South.