The method of assessing the sustainability of the functioning system based on the combat capabilities of the armies

Abstract

The authors' analysis of the calculation of the value of the stability indicator of the military communication system, based on the experience of conducting military operations in the east of the country, proved by the use of the classic approach by the officials of the communication management staff is not possible. It requires carrying out numerous specialized calculations separately for the directions of communication with their further generalization for the military communication system as a whole in the conditions of uncertainty of conducting active hostilities. In addition, resilience is an integral indicator from the convolution of probabilistic partial indicators of survivability, reliability, immunity and cyber security. Therefore, the authors proposed to develop a new methodology for calculating the value of the stability of the operation of the military communication system in the modern conditions of conducting hostilities. Unlike the classical approach, it should be based on the use of other indicators that will simplify calculations. The authors developed a graphic model of the operation of the military communication system in modern conditions of active hostilities. To describe the operation of the proposed model, the authors used the values of the combat capabilities of troops (forces). The methodology takes into account the predicted impact of means of fire damage, radio-electronic warfare of the enemy on our military communication system and the implementation of combat support and radio-electronic protection measures by the communication units. To formalize the methodology, the authors obtained a number of compact analytical expressions that establish the probabilities of the ratio between the values of the combat capabilities of our troops and the enemy's troops. The methodology is easily implemented in the form of an information and calculation task and significantly reduces the time of operational calculations for the military communications management staff to make sound management decisions.