The Multi‐Decadal Response to Net Zero CO<sub>2</sub> Emissions and Implications for Emissions Policy

Jenkins, Stuart; Peters, Glen P.; Peters, Glen P.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Allen, Myles

doi:10.1029/2022gl101047

Cited by 14 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…For completeness, we also conduct an historical ZEC experiment with FaIR. This analysis compliments two recent studies of the multi-decadal response to net-zero emissions [13,47].…”

Section: Committed Warming In the Sspssupporting

confidence: 85%

“…After net-zero was reached in 2050 following a 1.5 • C stabilization pathway in FaIR, ref. [47] found a likely temperature decline of −0.1 • C over the subsequent decades; as a consequence, weakly net-positive emissions of ∼ .5 GtC/yr after 2050 were shown to be consistent with flat multi-decadal temperatures. The equilibrium results derived here contextualize this finding and emphasize that long-term temperature stability enforces a strict limit on cumulative future emissions.…”

Section: Committed Warming In the Sspsmentioning

confidence: 88%

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Emissions cessation yields multi-century cooling

Tarshish,

Jeevanjee,

Fung

2023

Preprint

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Predicting the long-term warming commitment from past emissions is hindered by a lack of consensus amongst climate models. As a result, there is very low confidence that reaching net-zero emissions in the coming decades will stabilize the temperature beyond the 21st century. Here we provide a novel means of inferring the multi-century warming commitment directly from observations and established climate metrics. We cease emissions of all greenhouse gases and aerosols, and quantify the post-emissions temperature change by comparing the disequilibrium in the carbon system to the disequilibrium in the ocean’s thermodynamics. Constraining these disequilibria yields a prediction of multi-century cooling of approximately −0.4°C if emissions presently cease. For future emissions pathways, similar constraints indicate multi-century cooling after net-zero. Relative to the peak temperatures at net-zero, idealized theory and climate models of reduced and intermediate complexity predict a long-term decrease of −0.7 to −1.0°C depending on the scenario. These findings build confidence that net-zero mitigation pathways yield declining temperatures beyond the 21st century.

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“…For completeness, we also conduct an historical ZEC experiment with FaIR. This analysis compliments two recent studies of the multi-decadal response to net-zero emissions [13,47].…”

Section: Committed Warming In the Sspssupporting

confidence: 85%

Section: Committed Warming In the Sspsmentioning

confidence: 88%

Emissions cessation yields multi-century cooling

Tarshish,

Jeevanjee,

Fung

2023

Preprint

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“…Such experiments show that Earth System response to net negative emissions is complex and likely asymmetric, but the lack of extensive processbased ESM simulations of response to net negative emissions leaves significant uncertainties where SCMs and emulators have not been extensively tested or validated. Such uncertainties have bearing on the feasibility of a temperature overshoot, both in terms of the level of mitigation needed to stabilize warming (Jenkins et al 2022) and the relative timing of net-zero and peak warming (Koven, Sanderson, and Swann 2023).…”

Section: Qualifying Assumptions On Carbon Removal and Overshootmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sanderson

2024

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“…There have been several studies that have investigated climate response to reaching a state of net zero using state-of-the-art climate model simulations (Matthews and Caldeira 2008, Plattner et al 2008, Frölicher and Joos 2010, Gillett et al 2011, Zickfeld et al 2013, MacDougall et al 2020, Jenkins et al 2022. The most relevant studies to this research use the Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP), which includes a collection of Earth System Models (ESMs) and ESMs of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) configured in emissions-driven mode, where the carbon dioxide atmospheric concentration and downstream climate impacts are determined based on the model representations of the carbon cycle, as opposed to concentration-driven modeling where the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is prescribed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional temperature extremes and vulnerability under net zero CO₂ emissions

Cassidy,

King,

Brown

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Signatories to the Paris Agreement have pledged to keep global warming to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and preferably below 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Beyond over-shooting Paris Agreement warming levels followed by net negative emissions, achieving a state of net zero carbon dioxide emissions is required to satisfy Paris Agreement warming goals. Research on climate changes under net zero CO2 emissions is very limited to date with no comprehensive analysis of changes in extremes. In this study, we use results from Earth System Models in the zero emissions commitment model intercomparison project to understand regional mean-state climate change patterns during a 100 year period following carbon dioxide emissions cessation. We also perform an initial study of the evolution of hot and cold monthly temperature extremes after net zero CO2 emissions, including an assessment of how the change in frequency of temperature extremes affects areas of different levels of socioeconomic development based on regional Human Development Index (HDI). The results show that most land regions experience a fast and continuous cooling response following emissions cessation, with large areas of significant model agreement. In contrast, the Southern Ocean continues warming over the century after emissions cessation. The frequency of land-based local monthly high temperature extremes generally stays constant or decreases during the century after emissions cessation, however, decreases in heat extreme frequencies are generally less for locations with lower modern HDI than areas with higher HDI which suggests that inequality of climate change will remain an issue even after net zero CO2 emissions. There is an evident emergence of local monthly cold extremes following emissions cessation with most significant impact over high HDI mid- and high-latitude land regions.

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The Multi‐Decadal Response to Net Zero CO₂ Emissions and Implications for Emissions Policy

Cited by 14 publications

References 47 publications

Emissions cessation yields multi-century cooling

Emissions cessation yields multi-century cooling

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Regional temperature extremes and vulnerability under net zero CO₂ emissions

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The Multi‐Decadal Response to Net Zero CO2 Emissions and Implications for Emissions Policy

Cited by 14 publications

References 47 publications

Emissions cessation yields multi-century cooling

Emissions cessation yields multi-century cooling

Reply on RC1

Regional temperature extremes and vulnerability under net zero CO2 emissions

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The Multi‐Decadal Response to Net Zero CO₂ Emissions and Implications for Emissions Policy

Regional temperature extremes and vulnerability under net zero CO₂ emissions