The multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) predicts long-term mortality in old type 2 diabetes mellitus patients: a 13-year follow-up study

Abstract

Purpose The Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) is a tool capable of holistically frame older patients in different settings and affected by different pathologies, establishing a risk of adverse events. Among them, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), a common metabolic disease in the elderly, is responsible for complications and deaths. Few previous works have focused specifically on MPI and DM, and none have followed up the patients for more than 3 years. The aim of the present study is to analyze MPI accuracy in predicting mortality in a cohort of T2DM patients followed-up for 13 years. Methods The enrolled subjects were evaluated with MPI, identifying three levels of risk: MPI1 (low risk, 0.0–0.33), MPI2 (moderate risk, 0.34–0.66), and MPI3 (severe risk, 0.67–1.0), and with glycated hemoglobin, and years since T2DM diagnosis. Results One hundred and seven patients met the inclusion criteria. MPI3 was excluded by further analysis since it was made up of only three patients. Overall, cognitive performances, autonomies in daily living, nutritional status, risk of pressure injuries, comorbidities, and taken drugs were better (p ≤ 0.0077) in MPI1 than MPI2; moreover, the story of T2DM was shorter (p = 0.0026). Cox model showed an overall 13-year survival of 51.9%, and survival rates were significantly smaller in MPI2 (HR: 4.71, p = 0.0007). Finally, increased age (HR: 1.15), poorer cognitive abilities (HR: 1.26), vascular (HR: 2.15), and kidney (HR: 2.17) diseases were independently associated with death. Conclusion Our results prove that MPI predicts short-, mid-, and even long-term mortality in T2DM patients, whose death seems to be related to age and cognitive status, and even more to vascular and kidney diseases.