The nature and extent of foresight-infused strategy: a case study highlighting the liberal arts academy’s future move from traditional education

Abstract

Purpose Over the past 80 years within a small, liberal arts (LA) Canadian university, significant paradigm shifts in students’ programmatic choices have occurred reflecting student preference for business-related programs versus traditional LA offerings. Grounded in strategic foresight (SF) practices, this paper aims to investigate drivers of declining traditional LA enrolment that are currently a boon for management studies, positing implications for long-term futures of the LA Academy. Design/methodology/approach This paper lays out foundational research exploring phenomena in the academy, including disruptive forces, and explores how SF can clarify and shape long-term choices. Seeking to answer what paradigm-shifting forces really mean for the future of the academy, a case study approach is used to interpret disruptions to a Canadian institution facing present challenges and an uncertain future. Scenarios are developed for the broader academy using an environmental understanding to better inform predictive actions envisioned in academic institutional future planning. Findings The outcome of this research, including four scenarios, will be used to better understand student and stakeholder motivations informing future academic planning. As institutional paradigms appear resistant to change, these foresight-inspired findings are valuable considerations for institutional administrators, particularly those at stressed organizations facing unsettling realities. Originality/value The case study identifies that for the LA Academy, myriad future unknowns exist, including its continued existence in today’s form. Institutions are generally unresponsive to the precursors of future change and are not systematically exploring future options.

Conceptualizing Digital Readiness, Strategic Foresight, and Strategic Flexibility as Drivers of Digitalization and Performance of Small and Medium Enterprises

“…Strategic foresight is not traditional forecasting based on historical information. It requires cultivating experience, intuition, minority views, and contrary thinking, enabling organizations to understand the information they perceive [52].…”

Bouncecasting: a seminar gaming approach to foresight

“…Forecasting and backcasting multiple scenarios is a necessary component of the Bouncecasting approach, but that multiplicity is not unique to Bouncecasting. Other foresight investigators have used multiple scenarios, in gaming and other types of research (Brannon, 2020;Klakurka and Irwin, 2020;Saritas et al, 2017;Spaniol and Rowland, 2018;Woodhill and Hasnain, 2020). Bouncecasting studies use multiple scenariosto date ranging from two to sixwhere the different scenarios are related to each other in specific ways determined by identifying drivers of change germane to the issues in need of foresight.…”