The Need for Multi‐Century Projections of Sea Level Rise

Abstract

The latest assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provided scenario‐based local sea level projections to 2150 and characterized the long‐term committed global mean sea level rise on 2,000‐ and 10,000‐year time horizons associated with peak surface warming levels. Turner et al. build on the scientific assessment of the IPCC to provide time‐continuous projections of future sea level rise to 2500. These projections fill an important knowledge gap to help inform coastal decision‐making processes and more fully quantify the benefits of mitigation actions in terms of limiting future sea level rise. However, limited understanding of ice instability processes remains a key scientific challenge and improved observational and modeling capability are critical to reducing uncertainties and monitoring the trajectory of observed change.

21世纪全球冰川将加速消融

“…此外, 冰川消融会改变区域水资源的可利用性以及地表径流 在季节和年际之间的分配比例 [6] , 还会影响冰湖溃决、冰缘 滑坡和泥石流等地质灾害爆发的频率和规模 [7] . 因此, 亟需 准确预估冰川消融的时空变化模式, 以便采取措施应对未来 海平面上升、水资源失衡及可能频发的冰冻圈灾害 [3,5,8] . 冰川对气候变化的响应是冰冻圈研究的热点科学问 题 [2,3,9~12] .…”