The optimal jury size when jury deliberation follows a random walk

Helland, Eric; Raviv, Yaron

doi:10.1007/s11127-007-9222-5

Cited by 11 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 15 publications

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“…On the basis of an agentbased model, Angere et al (2016) concludes that "while it is in principle better to have a larger jury," the value of having more than 12-15 jurors is likely to be minimal. Given assumptions of honest information and with jury deliberation modeled as a random walk, Helland & Raviv (2008) concludes on the basis of cost considerations that the optimal number of jurors is one.…”

Section: Jury Sizementioning

confidence: 99%

The Epistemic Role of Diversity in Juries: An Agent-Based Model

Grim,

Singer,

Bramson

et al. 2024

JASSS

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Many factors contribute to whether juries reach right verdicts. Here we focus on the role of diversity. Direct empirical studies of the effect of altering factors in jury deliberation are severely limited for conceptual, practical, and ethical reasons. Using an agent-based model to avoid these difficulties, we argue that diversity can play at least four importantly different roles in affecting jury verdicts. We show that where different subgroups have access to different information, equal representation can strengthen epistemic jury success, and if one subgroup has access to particularly strong evidence, epistemic success may demand participation by that group. Diversity can also reduce the redundancy of the information on which a jury focuses, which can have a positive impact. Finally, and most surprisingly, we show that limiting communication between diverse groups in juries can favor epistemic success as well.

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Section: Jury Sizementioning

confidence: 99%

The Epistemic Role of Diversity in Juries: An Agent-Based Model

Grim,

Singer,

Bramson

et al. 2024

JASSS

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Applications of Random Walk and Diffusion Models in the Life and Behavioral Sciences

Schwarz

2022

Random Walk and Diffusion Models

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Endogenous competence and a limit to the Condorcet Jury Theorem

McCannon

Walker

2016

Public Choice

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The seminal contribution, known as the Condorcet Jury Theorem, observes that under a specific set of conditions an increase in the size of a group tasked with making a decision leads to an improvement in the group's ability to make a good decision. An assumption under-appreciated is that the competency of the members of the group is assumed to be exogenous. In numerous applications, members of the group make investments to improve the accuracy of their decision making (e.g. pre-meeting efforts). We consider the collective action problem that arises. We show that if competence is endogenous, then increases in the size of the group encourages free riding. This trades off with the value of information aggregation. Thus, the value of increased group size is muted. Extensions illustrate that if committee members are allowed to exit/not participate, then the equilibrium committee size is reduced. Additionally, (non-decisive) supermajority voting rules encourage the investments and, consequently, individual competence.

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The optimal jury size when jury deliberation follows a random walk

Abstract: Jury deliberation, Jury size, K4, D7,

Cited by 11 publications

References 15 publications

The Epistemic Role of Diversity in Juries: An Agent-Based Model

The Epistemic Role of Diversity in Juries: An Agent-Based Model

Applications of Random Walk and Diffusion Models in the Life and Behavioral Sciences

Endogenous competence and a limit to the Condorcet Jury Theorem

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