The Pandemic, Protests, and Perceptions of the Police: How COVID-19 and the Murder of George Floyd Affected Public Trust in the Chicago Police Department

Abstract

This study examines whether views of the police in Chicago were altered by the pandemic and the release of a video depicting George Floyd's murder. Panel data analysis is used to examine over six years of monthly survey data tabulated by the Chicago Police Department's private partner and made available to the public through an open data portal. The study finds evidence of a short-lived rally to the flag effect during the first stage of the pandemic, but only among White and Hispanic survey respondents. Views of the police decreased significantly for Black respondents during a later stage of the pandemic. Contrary to expectations, the survey data show an immediate improvement in public views of the police by Black and Hispanic respondents after the George Floyd video was released. Consistent with expectations, a steady month-by-month drop in those views then started before trending more positive in 2022 and extending through the end of the study period. The implications of the findings, in periods of emergency and otherwise, are also explored.