The performance comparison of machine learning methods for solar PV power prediction

Abstract

Purpose The energy generation process through photovoltaic (PV) panels is contingent upon uncontrollable variables such as wind patterns, cloud cover, temperatures, solar irradiance intensity and duration of exposure. Fluctuations in these variables can lead to interruptions in power generation and losses in output. This study aims to establish a measurement setup that enables monitoring, tracking and prediction of the generated energy in a PV energy system to ensure overall system security and stability. Toward this goal, data pertaining to the PV energy system is measured and recorded in real-time independently of location. Subsequently, the recorded data is used for power prediction. Design/methodology/approach Data obtained from the experimental setup include voltage and current values of the PV panel, battery and load; temperature readings of the solar panel surface, environment and the battery; and measurements of humidity, pressure and radiation values in the panel’s environment. These data were monitored and recorded in real-time through a computer interface and mobile interface enabling remote access. For prediction purposes, machine learning methods, including the gradient boosting regressor (GBR), support vector machine (SVM) and k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) algorithms, have been selected. The resulting outputs have been interpreted through graphical representations. For the numerical interpretation of the obtained predictive data, performance measurement criteria such as mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and R-squared (R2) have been used. Findings It has been determined that the most successful prediction model is k-NN, whereas the prediction model with the lowest performance is SVM. According to the accuracy performance comparison conducted on the test data, k-NN exhibits the highest accuracy rate of 82%, whereas the accuracy rate for the GBR algorithm is 80%, and the accuracy rate for the SVM algorithm is 72%. Originality/value The experimental setup used in this study, including the measurement and monitoring apparatus, has been specifically designed for this research. The system is capable of remote monitoring both through a computer interface and a custom-developed mobile application. Measurements were conducted on the Karabük University campus, thereby revealing the energy potential of the Karabük province. This system serves as an exemplary study and can be deployed to any desired location for remote monitoring. Numerous methods and techniques exist for power prediction. In this study, contemporary machine learning techniques, which are pertinent to power prediction, have been used, and their performances are presented comparatively.