The possibility of parallel market correction for exchange rate changes according to the ARDL and ARIMA models

Abstract

The parallel market is an indicator of the prevailing economic situation in the country, and the exchange rate is one of the important tools that link the local economy to the global economy. It also plays an important role in influencing many variables in the Iraqi economy. Therefore, we find that the monetary authority represented by the Central Bank of Iraq is in a continuous monetary struggle across... Over the past few years and up to the present, we have sought to find accurate solutions to the problem of the difference between the official and parallel exchange rates.As the sustainable and growing difference between the two prices leaves the impression on the public of turning towards the foreign currency in their transactions and reducing transactions in the local currency, then the effect is greatly reflected in the Iraqi economic sectors, especially the commercial sector, causing large and sudden changes in price levels, which creates and stimulates a group of complicit traders and researchers. For their personal gains through illegal and fraudulent means, which harms the interests of society as a whole, and this is what we notice. Despite the attempts made by the Central Bank of Iraq, they did not significantly affect the reduction of the difference between the two prices. Therefore, this study attempted to find a predictive approach between the official and parallel exchange rates through the model. According to the standard forecast, we see that the parallel exchange rate will reach (1433.64) per US dollar in the future for the year 2027. Therefore, the Central Bank, the government, and members of society must use all measures necessary to address the imbalances in the exchange rate.