The potential risks and impact of the start of the 2015–2016 influenza season in the WHO European Region: a rapid risk assessment

Abstract

BackgroundCountries in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region are reporting more severe influenza activity in the 2015–2016 season compared to previous seasons.ObjectivesTo conduct a rapid risk assessment to provide interim information on the severity of the current influenza season.MethodsUsing the WHO manual for rapid risk assessment of acute public health events and surveillance data available from Flu News Europe, an assessment of the current influenza season from 28 September 2015 (week 40/2015) up to 31 January 2016 (week 04/2016) was made compared with the four previous seasons.ResultsThe current influenza season started around week 51/2015 with higher influenza activity reported in Eastern Europe compared to Western Europe. There is a strong predominance of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 compared to previous seasons, but the virus is antigenically similar to the strain included in the seasonal influenza vaccine. Compared to the 2014/2015 season, there was a rapid increase in the number of severe cases in Eastern European countries with the majority of such cases occurring among adults aged <65 years.ConclusionsThe current influenza season is characterized by an early start in Eastern European countries, with indications of a more severe season. Currently circulating influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses are antigenically similar to those included in the seasonal influenza vaccine, and the vaccine is expected to be effective. Authorities should provide information to the public and health providers about the current influenza season, recommendations for the treatment of severe disease and effective public health measures to prevent influenza transmission.

Alternating patterns of seasonal influenza activity in the WHO European Region following the 2009 pandemic, 2010‐2018

“…Based on a subset of reporting entities, this early information is useful to inform risk assessments which in turn can prepare others. 27 These findings may be helpful for early season forecasting efforts.…”

“…While we found that the proportional distribution of viruses using cumulative data up to the start of the epidemic was often different than analysis at the end of the season (though perhaps this is not surprising as late season increases of B are often observed), virus dominance using cumulative data up to the start of the epidemic was most often concurrent with dominant viruses for cumulative data to the end of the season. Based on a subset of reporting entities, this early information is useful to inform risk assessments which in turn can prepare others . These findings may be helpful for early season forecasting efforts.…”

Differential Disease Severity and Whole Genome Sequence Analysis for Human Influenza A/H1N1pdm Virus in 2015-2016 Influenza Season

“…The 2015-16 H1N1pdm season in the US and Canada were moderate compared to the prior season [1, 5]. On the other hand, surveillance in Russia and some eastern European countries had increasing numbers of severe cases with evidence of 6B.1 circulation in the 2015-16 season [6, 25, 26]. National UK viral surveillance showed excess all cause mortality in adults and higher influenza admission rate in the 2015-16 season with predominant H1N1pdm 6B.1 and small numbers of 6B.2 [27, 28].…”

Human Parvovirus 4: A harmless bystander or a pathogen of severe acute respiratory illness

“…Common viral agents are influenza A (Infl A) and B (Infl B) viruses, parainfluenza viruses (PIV), coronaviruses, respiratory syncytial viruses (RSV), adenoviruses (AV), and rhinoviruses. Influenza virus infection, in particular, is very common followed by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection (CDC, 2016;Laguna-Torres et al, 2011;Chakhunashvili et al, 2018;Kenmoe et al, 2016;Tjon-Kon-Fat et al, 2016). Newer respiratory pathogens are also emerging.…”