The Present and Future of Alternative Waste Treatment Approaches in the United States: Tonnage and Trends

Abstract

Based on a series of surveys conducted by the author and her firm over the past twenty-five years, the paper documents trends in alternative pre-disposal municipal waste treatment approaches in the United States, namely curbside recycling and energy from waste initiatives. Recycling tonnage and the corresponding percentage of the waste stream recycled has increased steadily since the 1990s, but has appeared to reach a plateau of about 28% currently. If one adds organics composting to the tonnage, the percentage rises to about 34%. While recycling of inorganic materials has encountered economic headwinds, curbside organics recycling programs appear to be increasing, leading to a rise in aerobic or anaerobic treatment programs in the future. Oppositely, conventional energy from waste initiatives have stalled in the United States. With the exception of one recently opened facility, no new plants have been built, although several have or are undergoing expansion. About 13% of the municipal waste stream is currently being processed at energy from waste plants. Within the next five years, this percentage could drop to about 10%, with numerous facility closings anticipated. In the future, it appears that the municipal waste stream in the United States will become increasingly disaggregated, resulting in a number of small to mid-sized processing plants handling these various streams. Nearly 50% of the waste stream will continue to be landfilled.