The record-breaking compound hot and dry 2018 growing season in Germany

Zscheischler, Jakob; Fischer, Erich

doi:10.1016/j.wace.2020.100270

Cited by 109 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…Considering a recent dataset, Wu et al reported a more frequent and widespread spatial extent of the compound dry and hot conditions during the summer and winter seasons across China 22 . Zscheischler and Fischer recently investigated the record-breaking compound dry and hot conditions of 2018 during the summer season in Germany and projected that compound extreme would become more likely 23 . In summary, these aforementioned literature highlights a significant increase in the compound dry and hot summers at multiple spatiotemporal scales worldwide, including the Indian subcontinent 24,25 .…”

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confidence: 99%

Disentangling increasing compound extremes at regional scale during Indian summer monsoon

Guntu

Agarwal

2021

Sci Rep

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Compound extremes exhibit greater adverse impacts than their univariate counterparts. Studies have reported changes in frequency and the spatial extent of extremes in India; however, investigation of compound extremes is in the infancy state. This study investigates the historical variation of compound dry and hot extremes (CDHE) and compound wet and cold extremes (CWCE) during the Indian summer monsoon period from 1951 to 2019 using monthly data. Results are analyzed for 10 identified homogeneous regions for India. Our results unravelled that CDHE (CWCE) frequency has increased (decreased) by 1–3 events per decade for the recent period (1977–2019) relative to the base period (1951–1976). Overall, the increasing (decreasing) pattern of CDHE (CWCE) is high across North-central India, Western India, North-eastern India and South-eastern coastlines. Our findings help in identification of the parts of the country affected by frequent and widespread CDHE during the recent period, which is alarming. More detailed assessments are required to disentangle the complex physical process of compound extremes to improve risk management options.

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confidence: 99%

Disentangling increasing compound extremes at regional scale during Indian summer monsoon

Guntu

Agarwal

2021

Sci Rep

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“…For example, the tail dependence between storm surge and precipitation, which is relevant for compound coastal flooding, may be slightly underestimated in CMIP5 models (Bevacqua et al, 2019). Similarly, there is evidence that the tail dependence between hot and dry conditions may be underestimated by climate models in some cases (Zscheischler & Fischer, 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, we account for the dependence structure by also carrying out hypothesis tests which are based on the full copula function. We perform the non-parametric test of copula equality based on the Cramer-von-Mises test statistic proposed by Remillard and Scaillet (2009), used in Vezzoli et al (2017) for testing the capability of a climate-hydrology model to reproduce the dependence between temperature, precipitation and discharge for the Po river basin in Italy, and recently employed by Zscheischler and Fischer (2020) for evaluating the ability of climate models to represent the dependence between temperature and precipitation in Germany. The copula equality test has a null hypothesis of H 0 : C erai = C mod where C erai and C mod are the copulas of T and RH represented in ERA-Interim and a given model respectively, with the alternative hypothesis being that these copulas differ.…”

Section: Dependence Between T and Rhmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards a compound event-oriented climate model evaluation: A decomposition of the underlying biases in multivariate fire and heat stress hazards

Herrera¹,

Bevacqua²,

Ribeiro³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Climate models' outputs are affected by biases that need to be detected and adjusted to model climate impacts. Many climate hazards and climate-related impacts are associated with the interaction between multiple drivers, i.e. by compound events. So far climate model biases are typically assessed based on the hazard of interest, and it is unclear how much a potential bias in the dependence of the hazard drivers contributes to the overall bias and how the biases in the drivers interact. Here, based on copula theory, we develop a multivariate bias assessment framework, which allows for disentangling the biases in hazard indicators in terms of the underlying univariate drivers and their statistical dependence. Based on this framework, we dissect biases in fire and heat stress hazards in a suite of global climate models by considering two simplified hazard indicators, the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) and the Chandler Burning Index (CBI). Both indices solely rely on temperature and relative humidity. The spatial pattern of the hazards indicators is well represented by climate models. However, substantial biases exist in the representation of extreme conditions, especially in the CBI (spatial average of absolute bias: 21 °C) due to the biases driven by relative humidity (20 °C). Biases in WBGT (1.1 °C) are small compared to the biases driven by temperature (1.9 °C) and relative humidity (1.4 °C), as the two biases compensate each other. In many regions, also biases related to the statistical dependence (0.85 °C) are important for WBGT, which indicates that well-designed physically-based multivariate bias adjustment should be considered for hazards and impacts that depend on multiple drivers. The proposed compound event-oriented evaluation of climate model biases is easily applicable to other hazard types. Furthermore, it can contribute to improved present and future risk assessments through increasing our understanding of the biases’ sources in the simulation of climate impacts.

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“…2b). The highest water temperature of 22.15 • C was measured at 1 m water depth in August 2018, which was during the warmest summer recorded for the Baltic Sea since 1948 (Naumann et al, 2019) and also the second-warmest summer in Germany since 1981 (Zscheischler and Fischer, 2020). The lowest water temperature of 0.42 • C was measured at 15 m water depth in March 2010.…”

Section: Mixed-layer Depth (Mld)mentioning

confidence: 92%

A decade of dimethyl sulfide (DMS), dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) and dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) measurements in the southwestern Baltic Sea

et al. 2021

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Abstract. Dimethyl sulfide (DMS), dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) and dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) were measured at the Boknis Eck Time Series Station (BE, Eckernförde Bay, SW Baltic Sea) during the period February 2009–December 2018. Our results show considerable interannual and seasonal variabilities in the mixed-layer concentrations of DMS, total DMSP (DMSPt) and total DMSO (DMSOt). Positive correlations were found between particulate DMSP (DMSPp) and particulate DMSO (DMSOp) as well as DMSPt and DMSOt in the mixed layer, suggesting a similar source for both compounds. The decreasing long-term trends, observed for DMSPt and DMS in the mixed layer, were linked to the concurrent trend of the sum of 19′-hexanoyloxyfucoxanthin and 19′-butanoyloxy-fucoxanthin, which are the marker pigments of prymnesiophytes and chrysophytes, respectively. Major Baltic inflow (MBI) events influenced the distribution of sulfur compounds due to phytoplankton community changes, and sediment might be a potential source for DMS in the bottom layer during seasonal hypoxia/anoxia at BE. A modified algorithm based on the phytoplankton pigments reproduces the DMSPp : Chl a ratios well during this study and could be used to estimate future surface (5 m) DMSPp concentrations at BE.

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The record-breaking compound hot and dry 2018 growing season in Germany

Cited by 109 publications

References 55 publications

Disentangling increasing compound extremes at regional scale during Indian summer monsoon

Disentangling increasing compound extremes at regional scale during Indian summer monsoon

Towards a compound event-oriented climate model evaluation: A decomposition of the underlying biases in multivariate fire and heat stress hazards

A decade of dimethyl sulfide (DMS), dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) and dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) measurements in the southwestern Baltic Sea

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