The Relationship Between Short-Term Fluctuations and Stages of Economic Cycle: The Case of Ukraine

Abstract

Urgency of the research. The Ukraine has been con-tinuing to incur losses as a result of an economic recession and armed conflict in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. Result of this rise of destabilization and real terms of the operation of the national economy was the distortions of its investment and consumer subsystems. Target setting. The economists and politicians still does not have comprehensive information regarding the institu-tional mechanisms responsible for the social-economic sta-bility and ways to strengthen balance between national economy subsystems. Actual scientific researches and issues analysis. The growth and spread of such attention has been stimulat-ed by several factors: major natural environmental disasters and terrorism (see, e.g. Rose, 2005; Heltberg, 2009); an importance of an evolutionary perspective (see, e.g., Martin, 2013; Plotnikov, 2013); the deep financial and economic global crisis (see, e.g. Augustine et al., 2013; Hamilton, 2012). Uninvestigated parts of general matters defining. A modern tradition among economists has been to study the economic cycles as phenomena of short-term economic instability. It would be realistic to expect that parameters of short-term fluctuations and stages of economic cycles are inextricably connected. The research objective. The aim of the article is a justi-fication of hypothesis about existence the significant rela-tionship between short-term fluctuations and stages of eco-nomic cycles. The statement of basic materials. The results of one-way ANOVA introduce significant difference between values of RLF parameters in each stages of economic cycles, which is especially true for the RLF(GFC)-score. The com-parison of macro indicators and RLF-scores has led to the conclusion: there isn`t a significant link between level of fluc-tuation and absolute value. Conclusions. The findings presented here indicate that level of fluctuation can change over time, because the mechanisms that shape national socio-economic system may themselves evolve and change. «Fluctuation move-ments» is not a static characteristic, but a dynamic process, has been influenced both by the impact of shocks and by institutional and structural changes in economy.

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