The role of crop simulation modeling in assessing potential climate change impacts

Abstract

Agriculture is weather dependent, and changes in climate can have a drastic impact on our ability to feed, fuel, and clothe the world's population. Climate change is causing more frequent and unprecedented extreme weather events that are already negatively affecting agriculture. We need to assess the effects of extreme temperatures and rainfall on agriculture. Patterns of short‐term extreme weather events, such as elevated temperatures, flooding, and strong winds, are not predictable enough to design field experiments around. Process‐based crop and soil simulation models allow us to explore new management options and thus provide whole‐system‐based knowledge and management guides for different locations over variable climate conditions. By using crop simulation models, researchers can test different adaptation strategies and assess their effectiveness in reducing the impacts of climate change on agricultural production. In this paper, we discuss the development of crop models and how they have been used to assess the effects of a changing climate on agricultural productivity and propose methods for agriculture to adapt to those changes. We describe potential applications of crop models to assess regional issues such as irrigation demand, greenhouse gas emissions, and policy decisions. Better understanding of how weather and climate forecasts at various scales are provided and the reliability of these forecasts is important for using crop models as a planning tool. Different approaches for simulating long‐term climate change impacts on crop yield and seasonal yield forecasting are discussed. The use of ensemble models to better assess climate change impacts is also discussed.

How Do Arable Crop Farmers’ Adapt to Climate Change? New Evidence from Nigeria

“…"Moreover, the use of heat tolerant and drought resistance crops is also effective adaptation practices" [31]. One of the appropriate adaptation strategies by farmers according to Timlin et al [32] is shading and shelter, which can only be provided through agro-forestry and afforestation. The practice of multiple cropping allows all crop varieties to be sown simultaneously in the same field.…”

“…"This practice maximises the growth of all crops at the same time in the same field. The farmers incorporate a variety of crops with different growth habits in the same field or home-gardens to maximise the chances for production of multiple crops" [29,32]. Finally, it is evident that the arable crop farmers have various adaptation strategies in adapting to climate change to improve their output, sales, and standard of living in the area.…”