The SLI-SC Mathematical Model of African Swine Fever Transmission among Swine Farms: The Effect of Contaminated Human Vector

Chuchard, Pearanat; Prathumwan, Din; Trachoo, Kamonchat; Maiaugree, Wasan; Chaiya, Inthira

doi:10.3390/axioms11070329

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…ASF dissemination is also positively correlated with the spatial proximity between farms, which facilitates the local spread of ASF over short distances and the possible formation of spatial clusters (Vergne et al, 2015; Yoo et al, 2021). In particular, the movement of contaminated personnel and/or equipment between farms at short distances has been previously associated with local spread (Bellini et al, 2016; Zani et al, 2019; Gao et al, 2021; Chuchard et al, 2022). Additionally, the potential for ASF to survive on contaminated surfaces, such as transportation vehicles, for several days could lead to transmission via indirect contact (Y.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the effectiveness of control actions on African swine fever transmission in commercial swine populations in the United States

Sykes

Galvis

O'Hara

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Given the proximity of African swine fever (ASF) to the U.S., there is an urgent need to better understand possible dissemination pathways of the virus within the U.S. swine industry and to evaluate mitigation strategies. Here, we extended PigSpread, a farm-level spatially-explicit stochastic compartmental transmission model incorporating six transmission routes including between-farm swine movements, vehicle movements, and local spread, to model the dissemination of ASF. We then examined the effectiveness of control and eradication actions listed in the ASF national response plan. The average number of secondary infections during the first 60 days of the outbreak was 50 finisher farms, 17 nursery farms, 6 sow farms, and less than one farm in other production types. The between-farm movements of swine was the predominant route of ASF transmission with an average contribution of 71.4% to ASF dissemination, while local spread and movement of vehicles were less critical with an average contribution of 14.5% and 14.2%. We demonstrated that the combination of quarantine, depopulation, movement restrictions, contact tracing, and enhanced surveillance, was the most effective mitigation strategy, resulting in an average reduction of 74.0% of secondary cases by day 140 of the outbreak. In addition, this combination of control actions required a median of 485,138 depopulated animals, 1,634,623 diagnostic tests, and 53,648 movement permits. Our results provide a critical evaluation of the current national control and eradication actions, suggesting that the successful elimination of an ASF outbreak is likely to require the deployment of all control actions listed in the ASF national response plan for more than 140 days, as well as anticipating the resources needed for depopulation, testing, and movement permits under these controls.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the effectiveness of control actions on African swine fever transmission in commercial swine populations in the United States

Sykes

Galvis

O'Hara

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…From then on, physicians started using mathematical models to illuminate the important tools that influence transmitting transmissible diseases. One of the vital presentations of mathematical models is to help and recognize control approaches to remove a disease or reduce its endemicity [25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32]. In current centuries, numerous attempts have been made to examine the spread-changing aspects of infectious bugs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Computational Framework of the SVIR Epidemic Model with a Non-Linear Saturation Incidence Rate

Attaullah

Khurshaid

Zeeshan

et al. 2022

Axioms

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In this study, we developed an autonomous non-linear epidemic model for the transmission dynamics of susceptible, vaccinated, infected, and recovered individuals (SVIR model) with non-linear saturation incidence and vaccination rates. The non-linear saturation incidence rate significantly reduces the death ratio of infected individuals by increasing human immunity. We discuss a detailed explanation of the model equilibrium, its basic reproduction number R0, local stability, and global stability. The disease-free equilibrium is observed to be stable if R0<1, while the endemic equilibrium exists and the disease exists permanently in the population if R0>1. To approximate the solution of the model, the well-known Runge–Kutta (RK4) methodology is utilized. The implications of numerous parameters on the population dynamics of susceptible, vaccinated, infected, and recovered individuals are addressed. We discovered that increasing the value of the disease-included death rate ψ has a negative impact on those affected, while it has a positive impact on other populations. Furthermore, the value of interaction between vaccinated and infected λ2 has a decreasing impact on vulnerable and vaccinated people, while increasing in other populations. On the other hand, the model is solved using Euler and Euler-modified techniques, and the results are compared numerically and graphically. The quantitative computations demonstrate that the RK4 method provides very precise solutions compared to the other approaches. The results show that the suggested SVIR model that approximates the solution method is accurate and useful.

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Estimating the effectiveness of control actions on African swine fever transmission in commercial swine populations in the United States

Sykes

Galvis

O'Hara

et al. 2023

Preventive Veterinary Medicine

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The SLI-SC Mathematical Model of African Swine Fever Transmission among Swine Farms: The Effect of Contaminated Human Vector

Cited by 4 publications

References 23 publications

Estimating the effectiveness of control actions on African swine fever transmission in commercial swine populations in the United States

Estimating the effectiveness of control actions on African swine fever transmission in commercial swine populations in the United States

Computational Framework of the SVIR Epidemic Model with a Non-Linear Saturation Incidence Rate

Estimating the effectiveness of control actions on African swine fever transmission in commercial swine populations in the United States

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