The Statistical Risk Analysis as the Basis of the Sustainable Development

Abstract

In the work the problem of sustainable development of production, i.e., an optimum choice of parameter values of technological process with the purpose of minimization of risk of obtaining production of not planed quality also incorrect making decision about quality of production and maximization of profit of production at the guaranteed social and economic effects is formalized. Different statements of the problem depending on the put ultimate purpose are considered. The general method of solution of the put task using Bayesian approach of testing many hypotheses is offered.

Existing Approaches and Development Perspectives for Inferences

“…The combination of these opportunities improves the quality of made decisions in CBM in comparison with other methods. This fact is many times confirmed by the application of CBM to the solution of different practical problems [25,39,[50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58]59].…”

“…A new approach (philosophy) to the statistical hypotheses testing, called Constrained Bayesian Methods (CBM), was comparatively recently developed [24,25,27,[32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41]. This method differs from the traditional Bayesian approach with a risk function split into two parts, reflecting risks for incorrect rejection and incorrect acceptance of hypotheses and stating the risk minimization problem as a constrained optimization problem when one of the risk components is restricted and the other one is minimized.…”