The Toll of Tariffs: Protectionism, Education and Fertility in Late 19th Century France

Abstract

This paper examines a novel negative impact of trade tariffs and the costs they induce by documenting how protectionism reversed the long-term improvements in education and the fertility transition that were well under way in late 19th-century France. The Méline tariff, a tariff on cereals introduced in 1892, was a major protectionist shock that shifted relative prices in favor of agriculture and away from industry. In a context in which the latter was more intensive in skills than agriculture, the tariff reduced the relative return to education, which in turn affected parents' decisions about the quantity and quality of children. We use regional differences in the importance of cereal production in the local economy to estimate the impact of the tariff. Our findings indicate that the tariff reduced enrolment in primary education and increased birth rates and fertility. The magnitude of these effects was substantial, with the tariff offsetting the increasing trend in enrolment rates and the decreasing one in birth rates by a decade.

Can Internal Migration Foster the Convergence in Regional Fertility Rates? Evidence from 19th Century France

“…6 In fact, a line of research, following the pioneering efforts of Weir (1983), has tried to provide a quantitative and causal assessment of these economic factors on the French fertility decline (e.g. Cummins 2013; de la Croix and Perrin 2016; Bignon and Garcia-Peñalosa, 2016;Diebolt et al 2017). In particular, the recent studies of Bignon and Garcia-Peñalosa (2016) and Diebolt et al (2017) emphasise the quantityquality trade-off to explain aspects of the decline in fertility.…”

“…Cummins 2013; de la Croix and Perrin 2016; Bignon and Garcia-Peñalosa, 2016;Diebolt et al 2017). In particular, the recent studies of Bignon and Garcia-Peñalosa (2016) and Diebolt et al (2017) emphasise the quantityquality trade-off to explain aspects of the decline in fertility. Whether changes in economic conditions were large enough to explain the convergence in fertility rates across France is an open question.…”

Trade and redistribution: trade politics and the origins of progressive taxation

“…For the period under study here, Kevin O'Rourke estimates that while the consumer-side effect of the 'European grain invasion' (1870 to 1913) dominated its impact in Britain, in France the overall effect on real wages was negative (O'Rourke, 1997). 5 The 1892 Méline tariff in France substantially increased agricultural wages (Bignon and García-Peñalosa, 2016), and in Australia, labor maintained minimum wage thresholds through "protectionist schemes. .…”

A Natural Experiment on Job Insecurity and Fertility in France

“…We here make use of an exogenous rise in job insecurity following a change in employment-protection legislation uncovered by Georgieff and Lepinteur (2018). We share some similarities with Bignon and García Peñalosa (2018), who link a rise in Agricultural protection in 19 th Century France (via a tariff on imported grain) to subsequent lower education but higher fertility. Their analysis is at the regional level, and their exogenous intensity of treatment is the importance of cereal production at the regional level.…”