The Unexpected Relationship Between Extreme Shear Events and AMO

Abstract

The vertical shear–the change in wind speed with height-of horizontal winds is a serious threat to the safety of aircraft. Yet their global distribution is not fully understood. We creatively used a precise method to calculate different types of vertical shear at four isobaric surfaces during the period of 1979~2018. The occurrence of severe shear events has increased by 19%, and they mostly occur over the equatorial ocean and within the mid-high latitude zone of the Northern hemisphere, while light shear event occurrence has been reduced by 21%. Variations of severe shear are modulated by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which affects the frequency of shear events by influencing the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Our study implies that severe shear events are regulated by internal climate variability.