The Validity of US Nutritional Surveillance: USDA’s Loss-Adjusted Food Availability Data Series 1971-2010

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to examine the validity of the 1971-2010 United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) loss-adjusted food availability (LAFA) per capita caloric consumption estimates. Estimated total daily energy expenditure (TEE) was calculated for nationally representative samples of US adults, 20-74 years, using the Institute of Medicine's predictive equations with “low-active” (TEE L-ACT) and “sedentary” (TEE SED) physical activity values. TEE estimates were subtracted from LAFA estimates to create disparity values (kcal/d). A validated mathematical model was applied to calculate expected weight change in reference individuals resulting from the disparity. From 1971-2010, the disparity between LAFA and TEE L-ACT varied by 394 kcal/d—(P < 0.001), from −205 kcal/d (95% CI: −214, −196) to +189 kcal/d (95% CI: 168, 209). The disparity between LAFA and TEE SED varied by 412 kcal/d (P < 0.001), from −84 kcal/d (95% CI: −93, −76) to +328 kcal/d (95% CI: 309, 348). Our model suggests that if LAFA estimates were actually consumed, reference individuals would have lost ∼1-4 kg/y from 1971-1980 (an accumulated loss of ∼ 12 to ∼36kg), and gained ∼ 3-7 kg/y from 1988-2010 (an accumulated gain of ∼42 to ∼98 kg). These estimates differed from the actual measured increments of 10 kg and 9 kg in reference men and women, respectively, over the 39-year period. The USDA LAFA data provided inconsistent, divergent estimates of per capita caloric consumption over its 39-year history. The large, variable misestimation suggests that the USDA LAFA per capita caloric intake estimates lack validity and should not be used to inform public policy.

Simulating long-term human weight-loss dynamics in response to calorie restriction

“…In contrast, the PBRC WLP model was not developed using data from studies with long-term measurements or steady state weight changes. Nevertheless, the PBRC WLP model has been used on several occasions to perform long-term energy balance calculations (24)(25)(26)(27). The biases revealed in the present report warrant careful reconsideration of any conclusions based on such long-term PBRC WLP model calculations.…”

Estimating Food Waste as Household Production Inefficiency

“…Our primary concern about the baseline model is the missing physical activities in the FoodAPS data. Archer et al () show that physical activities play an important role in assessing food waste as they form significant shares of total energy expenditure. From a technical point of view, large shares do not necessarily imply inaccuracy of the baseline model.…”

United States Dietary Trends Since 1800: Lack of Association Between Saturated Fatty Acid Consumption and Non-communicable Diseases

“…Consumption of offal (organ) meats, marrow, feet, snouts, “spam,” and bloods was rarely tracked and varied over time and socioeconomic groups ( 47 ). Farm to retail and consumer-level food loss estimates were imprecise ( 48 ). The USDA ERS data estimated commercial vegetables and home-grown vegetables from the early 1970s and the present, although home-garden data are unreliable ( 49 , 50 ).…”

“…USDA ERS loss-adjusted food availability data were published after 1970 but were unreliable. Consumer and household surveys suffered from recall bias and variations in food loss over time due to increased fat trimming from meats or greater shelf-life due to preservatives were not accurately assessed ( 29 , 48 ). We only included Nationwide Food Consumption Surveys (NFCS) and National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data for non-nutritive sweeteners.…”