Thermal stress assessment for an Arctic city in summer

Abstract

Despite the fact, that against the background of global warming the Russian Arctic is still a region with severe winters and cool summers; the likelihood of thermal stress conditions in summer is also increasing. At the same time, urban conditions can significantly affect the human heat perception due to the appearance of the urban heat island effect and other factors. Using the example of the city of Nadym (Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug), the authors have assessed the possibility of the summer urban heat stress occurrence and analyzed its spatial heterogeneity. The article presents the detailed modeling results of the meteorological regime of the city within the framework of the COSMO-CLM model and the assessment of bioclimatic comfort using the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) index and Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). During periods of the extremely hot weather events in Nadym, the territory meso- and microclimatic mosaicism clearly manifests itself. In anthropogenically altered territories, the frequency of strong heat stress events can exceed that in the background areas by 1.7 times. Urban planning solutions should take into account not only the climatic resistance of Arctic cities to the winter cold, but also be adapted to the occurrence of summer heat.

Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on the Russian Arctic Economy (including the Energy Industry)

“…In general, the most evident consequences of climate change for the energy industry in the Arctic are associated with a reduction in the duration of the heating season and, accordingly, the demand for electricity. On the other hand, the demand for electricity may contrarily increase in the summer due to the increasing need for air conditioning during heat waves [39]. Another significant factor to consider is the implementation of a carbon tax in an effort to curb climate change.…”