TIM: modelling pathways to meet Ireland's long-term energy system challenges with the TIMES-Ireland Model (v1.0)

Abstract

Abstract. Ireland has significantly increased its climate mitigation ambition, with a recent government commitment to reduce greenhouse gases by an average of 7 % yr−1 in the period to 2030 and a net-zero target for 2050, underpinned by a series of 5-year carbon budgets. Energy systems optimisation modelling (ESOM) is a widely used tool to inform pathways to address long-term energy challenges. This article describes a new ESOM developed to inform Ireland's energy system decarbonisation challenge. The TIMES-Ireland Model (TIM) is an optimisation model of the Irish energy system, which calculates the cost-optimal fuel and technology mix to meet future energy service demands in the transport, buildings, industry, and agriculture sectors, while respecting constraints in greenhouse gas emissions, primary energy resources, and feasible deployment rates. TIM is developed to take into account Ireland's unique energy system context, including a very high potential for offshore wind energy and the challenge of integrating this on a relatively isolated grid, a very ambitious decarbonisation target in the period to 2030, the policy need to inform 5-year carbon budgets to meet policy targets, and the challenge of decarbonising heat in the context of low building stock thermal efficiency and high reliance on fossil fuels. To that end, model features of note include future-proofing with flexible temporal and spatial definitions, with a possible hourly time resolution, unit commitment and capacity expansion features in the power sector, residential and passenger transport underpinned by detailed bottom-up sectoral models, cross-model harmonisation, and soft-linking with demand and macro models. The paper also outlines a priority list of future model developments to better meet the challenge of deeply decarbonising energy supply and demand, taking into account the equity, cost-effectiveness, and technical feasibility. To support transparency and openness in decision-making, TIM is available to download under a Creative Commons licence.

Decarbonising road freight transport: The role of zero-emission trucks and intangible costs

“…The emission control module tracks CO 2 emissions, ensuring compliance with carbon constraints and enabling carbon-neutrality through direct CO 2 removal technology utilisation. The TIM is a well-established model comprehensively described in reference 59 applied in light-duty vehicles decarbonisation 50 low energy demand analyses 60 and the decarbonisation pathways in the residential sector 61 .…”

“… Net zero (NZ) : This scenario introduces a carbon budget constraint. This means that the model produces energy system pathways for energy supply and demand in Ireland that align with a predetermined carbon budget target (see the details in reference 59 ). Net zero + intangible costs (NZI) : In addition to the carbon budget constraint, NZI considers the activation of intangible costs.…”

“…Net zero (NZ) : This scenario introduces a carbon budget constraint. This means that the model produces energy system pathways for energy supply and demand in Ireland that align with a predetermined carbon budget target (see the details in reference 59 ).…”

“…Additionally, we thank the SFI Research Centre for Energy, Climate, and Marine for their support (grant no. 12/RC/2302_P2), and all co-authors of 59 for their valuable contributions to the development of TIM.…”

The National Development Plan in 2023: priorities and capacity

“…Alternative estimates exist. Balyk et al (2022) estimate that the cost of a shallow retrofit (from C to B2) to be at least €9,008, whilst the cost of a deep retrofit (from G to B2 standard) costs up to €24,394. If these estimates are employed as lower and upper thresholds for energy efficiency investment alone, the gross investment required is likely to be in the range of €4.5 billion to €12.2 billion.…”