Time-frequency nexus between remittances, exchange rates, and growth in Vietnam

Abstract

The significance of remittances to the Vietnamese economy necessitates investigating how they affect the value of the Vietnamese currency and other macroeconomic factors. Macroeconomic articles struggle to discover their impact on economic development, but measured remittances by migrant workers have recently soared. There is no academic study that has examined this phenomenon in Vietnam. This study uses wavelet frameworks to analyze the lead-lag nexus between exchange rates, remittances, and economic growth in Vietnam in time-frequency domains from 1995 to 2020. Overall, we find that: (i) remittances enhance economic growth in the short and medium run; (ii) exchange rates boost remittances in the short and medium run; (iii) exchange rates promote GDP in all frequency and time domains. Moreover, the partial wavelet coherence and multiple wavelet coherence frameworks also offered evidence supporting the wavelet coherence approach. More importantly, the outcomes of wavelet-based Granger causality unveil that there is two-way causality between the selected indicators, which means that all the indicators can predict each other at different frequencies. Our empirical results provide meaningful information for market participants and policymakers.