Time series analysis reveals synchrony and asynchrony between conflict management effort and increasing large grazing bird populations in northern Europe

Cusack, Jeremy J.; Duthie, A. Bradley; Rakotonarivo, O. Sarobidy; Pozo, Rocío Alfaro; Mason, Tom H. E.; Månsson, Johan; Nilsson, Lovisa; Tombre, Ingunn; Eythórsson, Einar; Madsen, Jesper; Tulloch, Ayesha I. T.; Hearn, Richard D.; Redpath, Steve

doi:10.1111/conl.12450

Cited by 17 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Knowledge about the relationship between population size and damage levels is crucial for wildlife damage management (Conover, ; Madsen et al, ). However, this knowledge is lacking for large grazing birds, especially at large spatial scales (Fox et al, ), and the relationship is often assumed to be linear (Cusack et al, ; McKenzie & Shaw, ). In this manuscript we investigated this important knowledge gap in the ecology of wildlife damage management.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, plants may compensate for grazing (Van der Graaf, Stahl, & Bakker, ; McNaughton, ) and under certain conditions intermediate grazing may stimulate plant growth (McNaughton, ). Few studies have been able to evaluate the relationship between bird numbers and damage levels and this link has often simply been assumed to be linear (Cusack et al, ; McKenzie & Shaw, ), especially at the national scale where most political and strategic management decisions are conducted (Fox et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Relating national levels of crop damage to the abundance of large grazing birds: Implications for management

Montràs-Janer

Knape

Nilsson

et al. 2019

Journal of Applied Ecology

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Populations of large grazing birds have increased in Europe during the past five decades, raising conflicts between conservation and farming interests. Managing these conflicts requires knowledge about the currently unknown relationship between population sizes and crop damage levels. We analysed unique data on reported, inspected and compensated crop damage caused by geese, swans and cranes together with data from population surveys in Sweden to investigate how bird abundance is related to damage levels at the national scale between 2000 and 2015. Over the study period, the annual number of damage reports, yield loss and costs for compensation increased. These crop damage levels were positively related to national population indices of common crane, barnacle and greylag goose. The shape of these relationships varied between species and encompassed considerable uncertainty. However, on a year‐to‐year basis (detrended data) we found no evident association between damage levels and bird numbers. Yield loss and compensation costs per reported damage did not increase with higher population indices of greylag goose, but they did so for barnacle goose. Synthesis and applications. We present a novel study of the relationships between different crop damage level indicators (damage reports, yield loss and compensation costs) and population numbers of large grazing birds. We identified a positive relationship with high uncertainty for all cases. We also identified the need to (a) better synchronize the monitoring of damages and bird numbers in time and space and (b) further study the relationships between damage levels and bird numbers at smaller (local and regional) and larger (flyway) spatial scales to reduce the uncertainty of the relationship and to gain a more holistic understanding of the system.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relating national levels of crop damage to the abundance of large grazing birds: Implications for management

Montràs-Janer

Knape

Nilsson

et al. 2019

Journal of Applied Ecology

Self Cite

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“…Similarly, many species of herbivorous waterfowl in Europe and North America have experienced exponential increases in population size partly because of pro-conservation, protective legislation and high user compliance, yet this trend has started to occur at the detriment of agricultural crop production on which these species have become reliant (Lefebvre et al 2017, Cusack et al 2019). On the island of Islay in Scotland, legal harvesting of the wintering Greenland Barnacle Goose (Branta leucopsis) population, a species protected under EU law, has now been enforced because of lobbying pressure from agricultural interest groups, whose livelihoods are affected by goose grazing and damage to livestock pastures (McKenzie and Shaw 2017).…”

Section: Application To Real-world Harvesting Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating conflict, lobbying, and compliance to predict the sustainability of natural resource use

Cusack¹,

Duthie²,

Minderman³

et al. 2020

E&S

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Predictive models are sorely needed to guide the management of harvested natural resources worldwide, yet existing frameworks fail to integrate the dynamic and interacting governance processes driving unsustainable use. We developed a new framework in which the conflicting interests of three key stakeholders are modeled: managers seeking sustainability, users seeking increases in harvest quota, and conservationists seeking harvest restrictions. Our model allows stakeholder groups to influence management decisions and illegal harvest through flexible functions that reflect widespread lobbying and noncompliance processes. Decision making is modeled through the use of a genetic algorithm, which allows stakeholders to respond to a dynamic social-ecological environment to satisfy their goals. To provide the critical link between conceptual and empirical approaches, we compare predictions from our model against data on 206 harvested terrestrial species from the IUCN Red List. We show that, although lobbying for a ban on resource use can offset low levels of noncompliance, such bias leads to an increased risk of extinction when noncompliance (and therefore illegal harvesting) is high. Management decisions unaffected by lobbying, combined with high rule compliance, resulted in more sustainable resource use. Model predictions were strongly reflected in our analysis of harvested IUCN species, with 81% of those classified under regulated harvest and high compliance showing stable or increasing population trends. Our results highlight the fine balance between maintaining compliance and biasing decisions in the face of lobbying. They also emphasize the urgent need to quantify lobbying and compliance processes across a range of natural resources. Overall, our work provides a holistic and versatile approach to addressing complex social processes underlying the mismanagement of natural resources.

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“…scarecrows, pennants and propane cannons), diversionary fields (i.e. supplying food at undisturbed locations) and occasional local culling (Hake et al 2010, Cusack et al 2018. The level of scaring activity was however hard to quantify as it was an uncoordinated activity carried out by farmers and managers.…”

Section: Study Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Central place foraging in a human‐dominated landscape: how do common cranes select feeding sites?

Nilsson

Persson

Månsson

2020

Journal of Avian Biology

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Human infrastructure and disturbance play an important role when animals select resources in human‐modified landscapes. Theory predicts that animals trade food intake against costs of movement or disturbance to optimize net energy gain and fitness, but other necessary resources may also constrain the decisions, e.g. when animals repeatedly need to return to a central location, such as a nest, waterhole or night roost. Central place foraging theory states that the probability of occurrence of an animal decreases with the distance to the central location while selectivity for food items or foraging sites providing high net energy gain should increase with distance. We studied foraging patterns of common cranes Grus grus feeding in an agricultural landscape adjacent to a wetland to which they return for night roost. We used availability of spilled grains on harvested fields and distance to human settlement as proxy for site quality (i.e. increased likelihood of increased net energy gain with increased food availability and less disturbance). As predicted by theory, our results clearly show that cranes were more likely (more than twice as high resource selection function scores) to select foraging sites close to roosts. However, contrary to predictions, the selection of high quality sites in terms of high food availability decreased with distance to roost sites. Nevertheless, our results indicate that cranes were more likely to select sites with low risk of human disturbance far from roost sites, and were more tolerant to disturbance close to roost sites. How different species respond to the local and environmental conditions will increase the understanding of the species’ resource requirement, and also where in the landscape to prioritize conservation or management actions (e.g. mitigation of human disturbance and crop damage prevention to sustain agricultural production).

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Time series analysis reveals synchrony and asynchrony between conflict management effort and increasing large grazing bird populations in northern Europe

Cited by 17 publications

References 36 publications

Relating national levels of crop damage to the abundance of large grazing birds: Implications for management

Relating national levels of crop damage to the abundance of large grazing birds: Implications for management

Integrating conflict, lobbying, and compliance to predict the sustainability of natural resource use

Central place foraging in a human‐dominated landscape: how do common cranes select feeding sites?

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