Title: “Using data on snus use in Sweden to compare different modelling approaches to estimate the population health impact of introducing a smoke-free tobacco product”

Abstract

Background We have developed an approach for modelling the health impact of introducing new smoke-free tobacco products. We wished to compare its estimates with those of alternative approaches, when applied to snus, used in Sweden for many years.Methods Modelling was restricted to men aged 30-79 years for 1980-2009 and to four smoking-related diseases. Mortality data were extracted for Sweden and other European countries. Published data provided Swedish prevalence estimates for combinations of never/former/current smoking and snus use, and smoking prevalence estimates for other European countries. Approach 1 compares mortality in Sweden and in other countries with a smoking prevalence similar to Sweden’s prevalence of combined smoking/snus use. Approaches 2 and 3 compare mortality in Sweden with hypothetical mortality had snus users smoked. Approach 3 uses our health impact model, individuals starting with the tobacco prevalence of Sweden in 1980. Tobacco histories during 30-year follow-up were then estimated using transition probabilities, with risk derived using a negative exponential model. Approach 2 uses annual tobacco prevalence estimates coupled with estimates of relative risk of current and former smokers regardless of history. The main applications of Approaches 2 and 3 assume that only smoking affects mortality, though sensitivity analyses using Approach 3 allow for risk to vary in snus users and dual users.Results Using Approach 2, estimated mortality increases in Sweden in 1980-2009 had snus not been introduced were: lung cancer 8,786; COPD 1,781; IHD 10,409; stroke 1,720. The main Approach 3 estimates were similar (7,931; 1,969; 12,501; 1,901). They decreased as risk in snus users and dual users increased. Approach 1 estimates differed wildly (77,762; 32,538; 77,438; 76,946), remaining very different following correction for differences between Sweden and the comparison countries in non-smoking-related disease mortality.Conclusions Approach 1 is unreliable, accounting inadequately for non-tobacco factors affecting mortality. Approaches 2 and 3 provide reasonably similar approximate estimates of the mortality increase had snus not been available, but have differing advantages and disadvantages. Only Approach 3 considers tobacco history, but develops histories using tobacco transition probabilities, which is possibly less reliable than using estimated tobacco prevalences at each follow-up year.