Tornadoes in Romania—from Forecasting and Warning to Understanding Public’s Response and Expectations

Abstract

Significant progress in tornado research and management can be claimed over the last few decades worldwide. However, tornado forecasting and warning continue to be permanent challenges for most European national meteorological services because they require particular skills and experience. Moreover, tornado warnings may generate panic. Therefore, one can remark that the main difficulties are related to (1) forecasting the tornado genesis, and (2) finding the most efficient way to communicate to the general public the possibility of tornado occurrence. This article presents the main characteristics of two convective events that occurred in Romania in order to emphasize the similarities and disparities between the tornado event (30 April 2019) and the non-tornado event (6 May 2019), from the warning perspective. Further, we investigate, for the first time in Romania, the general public’s comprehension, risk perception and reactions regarding the tornado events. The survey performed in 2020 emphasized that the Romanian public is able to recognize tornadoes (60%), understand the risks (over 80%), can manage the panic (over 70%), and is rather desirous to receive clear (over 90%) and real-time (95%) tornado warnings. The lessons learned may support the further development of tornado forecasting and warning procedures, and foster the public’s awareness related to tornado events.

Climate change perception in Romania

“…The survey also investigated the public perception related to the dangerous meteorological phenomena (severe weather conditions) most often associated with CC in Romania. The results revealed how the Romanians perceive the local changes of temperature, precipitation, and several meteorological phenomena proposed in the survey based on existing reports on observed changes: heat and cold waves (Piticar et al 2017 ; Croitoru et al 2016 , 2018 ), rainfall events (Busuioc et al 2017 ), snow cover (Micu et al 2015 ; Birsan and Dumitrescu 2014 ), drought, storms, and new or rare events, such as tornadoes (Andrei et al 2020 ).…”

“…Previous studies tackled the Romanian public’s perception of different environmental issues, such as natural hazards (Cheval 2003 ; Andrei et al 2020 ), CC impact on forest (Blujdea 2005 ; Cosofret et al 2014 ), flood risk (Armaş and Avram 2009 ), and earthquakes (Armaş 2006 ) or the CC issue at city scale (e.g., Bere-Semeredi and Bere-Semeredi 2020 ). Besides, the Romanians’ perception of the CC issue was investigated in continental-scale studies (e.g., Poortinga et al 2019 ; Hagen et al 2015) or systematically reviewed (e.g., Capstick et al 2015 ).…”

Spatiotemporal Variability of Convective Events in Romania Based on METAR Data

“…In Romania, there are only a few studies that have investigated convective events, and such studies examined severe convective storms and tornadoes [23][24][25]. Manea et al [17] have found statistically significant increasing trends in the frequency of days with rain showers and snow showers over most of Eastern Romania, with no statistically significant trends in the frequency of sleet showers.…”

The Synoptic Characteristics, Causes, and Mechanisms of Kahlaa Tornado in Iraq on 14th April 2016

“…On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, it was estimated that at least 100 tornados occur each year in Europe. It is responsible for significant damages with impacts on many social activities, human health and economy (4,5). Most tornadoes rotate cyclonically.…”