Tourism Forecasting and Environment

Abstract

Congestion in Edinburgh is a major issue, especially during peak visitor periods. The primary aim of this study was to develop a practical forecasting tool providing visitor volume, and visitor segmentation projections, to assist the travel and hospitality sectors in their planning. To address this a predictive model has been established based on Edinburgh Castle visitor records in conjunction with the Google Trends popularity index for Edinburgh Castle. Popularity of attractions was found to increase around major events with on-line search trends offering an indication of expected volume. Preliminary findings indicate predictions are feasible and could be improved should data relevant to other attractions and sectors be available.