Towards a definitive historical high-resolution climate dataset for Ireland – promoting climate research in Ireland

Flanagan, Jason; Nolan, P.; McGrath, Ray; Werner, Christopher L.

doi:10.5194/asr-15-263-2019

Cited by 3 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 15 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Extensive validations were carried out to test the ability of the RCMs to accurately model the climate of Ireland. Results confirm that the output of the RCMs exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in the historical data record Flanagan et al, 2019;Werner et al, 2019).…”

Section: Regional Climate Model Validationsupporting

confidence: 80%

“…It was found that although the RCM accuracy increased with a higher spatial resolution, reducing the horizontal grid spacing below 4 km provided relatively little added value (Nolan et al, 2017). The results of the preliminary experiments determined the model configurations of the current study (Nolan et al, 2017;Flanagan et al, 2019).…”

Section: Model Domains and Experiments Setupmentioning

confidence: 63%

“…Finally, the choice of grid spacing was determined by both computational constraints and a careful preliminary validation experiment (e.g. Nolan et al, 2017;Flanagan et al, 2019). A number of 1-month validation simulations were run using different physics schemes in order to determine the most accurate physics options to use for the current study.…”

Section: Model Domains and Experiments Setupmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For an in-depth validation of additional climate fields, please refer to Nolan et al (2014Nolan et al ( , 2015Nolan et al ( , 2017 and Flanagan et al (2019). Additional experiments were carried out to assess the added value of high-resolution RCM models, the results of which demonstrated improved skill of RCMs over the GCMs.…”

Section: Rcm Validation Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For reference, the "observed" mean annual specific humidity (g kg −1 ), as resolved by a high-resolution (1.5-km) downscaled ERA-Interim climate simulation, is presented in Figure 3.32b. Please refer to Flanagan et al (2019) for an overview of the climate simulation configuration and validation results. Figure 3.33 presents the projected seasonal change (%) in specific humidity for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.…”

Section: -M Wind Speed Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Research 339: High-resolution climate projections for Ireland. A multi-model ensemble approach

Nolan¹,

Flanagan²

2022

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is responsible for protecting and improving the environment as a valuable asset for the people of Ireland. We are committed to protecting people and the environment from the harmful effects of radiation and pollution. The work of the EPA can be divided into three main areas: Regulation: We implement effective regulation and environmental compliance systems to deliver good environmental outcomes and target those who don't comply. Knowledge: We provide high quality, targeted and timely environmental data, information and assessment to inform decision making at all levels.

show abstract

Section: Regional Climate Model Validationsupporting

confidence: 80%

Section: Model Domains and Experiments Setupmentioning

confidence: 63%

Section: Model Domains and Experiments Setupmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Rcm Validation Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: -M Wind Speed Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Research 339: High-resolution climate projections for Ireland. A multi-model ensemble approach

Nolan¹,

Flanagan²

2022

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

TRANSLATE: standardized climate projections for Ireland

O'Brien

Nolan

2023

Front. Clim.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The TRANSLATE project was established in 2021 by Met Éireann, the Irish national meteorological service, to provide standardized future climate projections for Ireland. This paper outlines the principles and main methods that were used to generate the first set of such projections and presents selected results to the end of the 21st century. Two separate ensembles of dynamically downscaled CMIP5 projections were analyzed. These produce very consistent results, increasing confidence in both, and in the methods used. Future projected fields show plenty of detail (depending on local geography), but the change maps relative to the base period are much smoother, reflecting the global climate change signal. Future forcing uncertainty is represented by 3 different emission scenarios, while model response uncertainty is represented by sub-ensembles corresponding to different climate sensitivities. The resulting matrix of distinct climate ensembles is complemented by ensembles of temperature threshold-based projections, drawn from the same underlying simulations.

show abstract

Impacts of climate change on groundwater flooding and ecohydrology in lowland karst

Morrissey

Nolan

McCormack

et al. 2021

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Lowland karst aquifers can generate unique wetland ecosystems which are caused by groundwater fluctuations that result in extensive groundwater–surface water interactions (i.e. flooding). However, the complex hydrogeological attributes of these systems, linked to extremely fast aquifer recharge processes and flow through well-connected conduit networks, often present difficulty in predicting how they will respond to changing climatological conditions. This study investigates the predicted impacts of climate change on a lowland karst catchment by using a semi-distributed pipe network model of the karst aquifer populated with output from the high spatial resolution (4 km) Consortium for Small-scale Modelling Climate Lokalmodell (COSMO-CLM) regional climate model simulations for Ireland. An ensemble of projections for the future Irish climate were generated by downscaling from five different global climate models (GCMs), each based on four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) to account for the uncertainty in the estimation of future global emissions of greenhouse gases. The one-dimensional hydraulic/hydrologic karst model incorporates urban drainage software to simulate open channel and pressurised flow within the conduits, with flooding on the land surface represented by storage nodes with the same stage volume properties of the physical turlough basins. The lowland karst limestone catchment is located on the west coast of Ireland and is characterised by a well-developed conduit-dominated karst aquifer which discharges to the sea via intertidal and submarine springs. Annual above ground flooding associated with this complex karst system has led to the development of unique wetland ecosystems in the form of ephemeral lakes known as turloughs; however, extreme flooding of these features causes widespread damage and disruption in the catchment. This analysis has shown that mean, 95th and 99th percentile flood levels are expected to increase by significant proportions for all future emission scenarios. The frequency of events currently considered to be extreme is predicted to increase, indicating that more significant groundwater flooding events seem likely to become far more common. The depth and duration of flooding is of extreme importance, both from an ecological perspective in terms of wetland species distribution and for extreme flooding in terms of the disruption to homes, transport links and agricultural land inundated by flood waters. The seasonality of annual flooding is also predicted to shift later in the flooding season, which could have consequences in terms of ecology and land use in the catchment. The investigation of increasing mean sea levels, however, showed that anticipated rises would have very little impact on groundwater flooding due to the marginal impact on ebb tide outflow volumes. Overall, this study highlights the relative vulnerability of lowland karst systems to future changing climate conditions, mainly due to the extremely fast recharge which can occur in such systems. The study presents a novel and highly effective methodology for studying the impact of climate change in lowland karst systems by coupling karst hydrogeological models with the output from high-resolution climate simulations.

show abstract

Towards a definitive historical high-resolution climate dataset for Ireland – promoting climate research in Ireland

Cited by 3 publications

References 15 publications

Research 339: High-resolution climate projections for Ireland. A multi-model ensemble approach

Research 339: High-resolution climate projections for Ireland. A multi-model ensemble approach

TRANSLATE: standardized climate projections for Ireland

Impacts of climate change on groundwater flooding and ecohydrology in lowland karst

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About