Towards Detecting Bioclimatic Niche - Species Distribution Modelling in Four Maple Species (Acer Spp.)

Abstract

-The aim of this paper was fi rstly to describe the ecological and geographical differentiation of the four maple species (Acer spp.) in Serbia and Kosovo based on fl oristic and phytocoenological data, and secondly, to model their distributions in order to predict which areas the species can be expected in. The intention was also to compare the resulting prediction maps with the available fi eld records and see whether there are any differences between the actual and the predicted ranges. The data set included 1979 species records and each record was accompanied by geographic coordinates. The geographical analysis was performed on the chorological data (latitude, longitude, altitude), while the ecological was based on vegetation data relating to the association, alliance, order and class as well as on 19 bioclimatic parameters. The data set was georeferenced using GIS tools. The results demonstrated that the distribution patterns of all the analyzed species are mostly affected by the limiting effects of the variables related to precipitation and temperature of the dry and also the warm period. Their synergic limiting effects are the most important force shaping distribution patterns within a territory. These fi ndings highlight the importance of defi ning bioclimatic profi les of species using different techniques of distribution modelling.

Evidence of Constrained Divergence and Conservatism in Climatic Niches of the Temperate Maples (Acer L.)

“…Finally, my implementation of Maxent involved several choices made to optimize some modeling objectives at the expense of others. Typically, species distribution modeling for a single taxon entails critical consideration of predictor variables that might be relevant to the distribution of the taxon in question (e.g., [52,75,78]). In the context of the present study, my interest was in selecting a common set of variables known to be widely relevant to the distribution of temperate woody plants and to use these to construct Maxent models for all study taxa (e.g., [44]).…”

“…To date, though, such systematic, comparative analysis of the diversity in and phylogenetic context of the climatic niche occupied by the maple genus lags behind that executed for other lineages (e.g., [44][45][46][47]). Instead, rigorous modeling of maples' ecological niches has heretofore been restricted to ad hoc investigations of particular species of interest, usually with a focus on the climate change vulnerability of common forest species [48][49][50][51][52][53]. The persistent gap in our understanding of biogeographic patterns in and evolution of the ecological niche of Acer has motivated my exploration of the following questions:…”

Morphologic variability of the Acer campestre L. populations in Bosnia and Herzegovina

“…It is assumed that determining factors for various Acer species involve also A. campestre, according to the results of Kabaš et al (2014) for the Serbia and Kosovo region.…”

Mid-Pleistocene and Holocene demographic fluctuation of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in the Carpathian Mountains and the Pannonian Basin: Signs of historical expansions and contractions

“…Mayol et al, 2015), prediction to the reference period (e.g. Kabaš et al, 2014;Yuan et al, 2015), and forecasting (eg. Ali et al, 2014;Somodi et al, in press) as well.…”