Tracking the evolution of new and emerging S&T via statement-linkages: Vision assessment in molecular machines

Abstract

The past 10 years has seen an explosion of interest for the area of science and technology labelled "nanotechnology." Although at an early stage, nanotechnology is providing a space for the creation of new alliances and the forging of new ties in many actor arenas, initiated based on promises and high expectations of the fruits that could be harvested from development and investment into nanotechnology. Those trying to characterise the dynamics of emerging ties and networks within this field are faced with a number of complexities which are characteristic of the nanotechnology umbrella term, which covers many technologies, various mixes of disciplines and actors, and ongoing debates about definitions of fields and terminology.In this paper we explore an approach for capturing dynamics of emergence of a particular area of nanotechnology by investigating visions of possible futures in relation to molecular mechanical systems (molecular machines). The focus of this text is to outline an approach used to map and analyse visions in an emerging field by taking as the unit of analysis linkages made in statements in texts, and the agglomeration of linkages around certain nodes. Taking the linkage, rather than node, allows one to probe deeper into the dynamics of emergence at early stages when definitions and meanings of certain words/nodes are in flux and patterns of their use change dramatically over short periods of time.As part of a larger project on single and macromolecular machines we explore the dynamics of visions in the field of molecular machines with the eventual aim to elucidate the shaping strength of visions within nanotechnology. D. K. R. ROBINSON et al.: The evolution of new and emerging S&T 832Scientometrics 70 (2007)

Advanced sciences convergence based methods for surveillance of emerging trends in science, technology, and intelligence

“…It should be noted that quantitative approaches also have their limits. For example, empirical models often assume a linear relationship among variables and ignore multivariate interactions and non-linearity (Robinson et al, 2007). Therefore, to extract plausible solution pathways and alternatives, it is practical to implement broad complementary methods to ensure robust and reliable perspective on S&T futures.…”

Interactive learning and action: realizing the promise of synthetic biology for global health

“…Visions can be described as 'mental images of attainable futures that are considered desirable and shared by a collection of actors' (Roelofsen et al 2008). These visions of the future can be useful to stimulate learning about possible impacts, orient future actions, guide activities and bridge the gaps between different social levels and dimensions (Borup et al 2006;Robinson et al 2007;Grin and Grunwald 2000;Roelofsen et al 2008Roelofsen et al , 2010. However, scientists in an emerging scientific field find it difficult to think about future applications with a 30-50 years time frame and do not want to exaggerate the potential, preferring to restrict themselves to short-term knowledge questions and the obvious applications that are already being researched (Kloet 2011;Roelofsen 2011).…”

Will genomics erode public health and prevention? A scenario of unintended consequences in the Netherlands

“…Scenario building can anticipate possible paths of such knowledge take-up (cf Robinson and Propp, 2008). With respect to language, expectations researchers have made efforts at operationalizing modalities ('could, might, will, shall') as indicators of perceptions of the probability of expectations (Robinson et al, 2007); whenever there is a degree of uncertainty to expectations, one should refrain from assertive statements ('the future will…') and use other modalities.…”