Tractor demand projection in Turkey

Unakıtan, Gökhan; Akdemir, Bahattin

doi:10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2007.01.011

Cited by 7 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Numerosos estudios han probado que la tasa de crecimiento positivo de tractores, entre otros factores, han promovido el cambio técnico (Roumasset y Thapa, 1983;Hussain y Ali, 1989), siendo un indicador de prosperidad (Arias, 2000), de incremento de potencia y también de abandono de trabajadores (Unakitan y Akdemir, 2007) en el sector agrario.…”

Section: Tractorizaciónunclassified

“…Su estudio ha tenido considerable atención de numerosos investigadores que han examinado, entre otros: la elección entre tractores y tracción animal (Lew, 2000;Olmstead y Rhode, 2001); los elementos que inciden en la evaluación económica de los tractores agrícolas (Hetz et al, 1998); el costo oportunidad, ahorro de tiempo y mejoramiento de los implementos en la adopción ( Duffy y Silberberg, 2006); la proyección de la demanda (Unakitan y Akdemir, 2007). El parque de tractores agrícolas de una región o país, algunas veces es tomado como un importante indicador de la inversión en agricultura.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

“…También el grado de capitalización rural se puede observar mediante un índice estimado sobre la base de número de tractores por unidad de superficie, el que constituye un índice comparable entre regiones o países. Diversos estudios han intentado modelar el parque de tractores, donde los modelos usados han sido estimados mediante ajuste lineal (Arias, 2000;Unakitan y Akdemir, 2007) o en forma econométrica cuando se valora como maquinaria agrícola (Guadalajara-Olmeda y Fenollosa-Ribera, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

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Relación entre el Parque de Tractores Agrícolas y el Patrón de Difusión y Adopción mediante un Modelo Logístico

2011

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* Autor a quien se debe dirigir la correspondenciaRecibido Ene. 26, 2011; Aceptado Mar. 21, 2011; Versión Final recibida May. 24, 2011 Resumen Este estudio determina el parque de tractores y la evolución del crecimiento de la adopción agregada del tractor agrícola en Chile. Se aplicó un modelo logístico para determinar el crecimiento de la adopción y la rapidez de adopción del tractor agrícola. Los parámetros del modelo se determinaron mediante un procedimiento no lineal. Se usó el balance del parque de tractores y la curva de tractorización y de adopción para estimar la variación de las unidades entre t y t-1 y se relacionó con la incorporación de tractores y con aquellos dados de baja. El modelo logístico mostró un nivel de ajuste significativo y permitió estimar la tasa de adopción y el nivel de saturación de la adopción. Se concluye que la metodología se puede aplicar para el estudio de la adopción de tecnologías en otras regiones y otros países. Palabras clave: tractorización, innovación tecnológica, parque de tractores, modelo logístico Relationship between the Agricultural Tractor Stock and the Adoption and Diffusion Patterns using a Logistic Model AbstractThis paper determines the tractor stock and aggregate adoption growth of agricultural tractors in Chile. A logistic model was applied to determine the adoption growth and the adoption speed of agricultural tractors. Model parameters were determined by a non-linear algorithm. The tractor stock balance and the tractorization curve were used to estimate variation rate between t and t-1. This variation was associated with the introduction of tractors and those units removed from the stock. The logistic model showed a significant adjustment level and allowed estimating the rate of adoption and the adoption saturation level. It is concluded that the methodology can be applied to study technological adoption in other regions and other countries.

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Section: Tractorizaciónunclassified

Section: Introductionunclassified

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Relación entre el Parque de Tractores Agrícolas y el Patrón de Difusión y Adopción mediante un Modelo Logístico

2011

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“…In these studies, the useful life or lifespan of the tractor parameter plays an important role in the analysis. This parameter is often given or assumed, and influences the estimation of important technical and economic variables (Hetz et al,1998;Unakitan and Akdemir, 2007;Guadalajara-Olmeda and Fenollosa-Ribera, 2010;Muñoz et al 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many researchers have examined the agricultural tractor from different perspectives, including the choice between tractor and animal traction (Olmstead and Rhode, 2001); the factors affecting economic evaluation of agricultural tractors (Hetz et al,1998); the costs, in terms of opportunity, time savings and improvements in the implementation of technology adoption (Duffy and Silberberg, 2006); the demand projection of tractors (Unakitan and Akdemir, 2007); the positive growth rate of tractors and its relationship to technological change (Hussain and Ali, 1989;Patel and Madalsa, 1996); the use of tractors as an indicator of prosperity or progress in the agricultural sector (Unakitan (Guadalajara-Olmeda and Fenollosa-Ribera, 2010) and the relationship between tractor stock and adoption and diffusion patterns (Muñoz et al, 2011). In these studies, the useful life or lifespan of the tractor parameter plays an important role in the analysis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of the lifespan of agricultural tractor using a diffusion model at the aggregate level

Muñoz

Llanos

2012

Cienc. Inv. Agr.

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R. Muñoz, and J. Llanos. 2012. Estimation of the lifespan of agricultural tractor using a diffusion model at the aggregate level. Cien. Inv. Agr. 39(3): 557-562. The adoption of agricultural tractors by farms has resulted in different combinations, relationships and established ways of production of localities, regions and countries. The dynamics of the tractorization process are defined by the balance of the units that enter the fleet and those that are removed at the end of their useful life. This study uses a diffusion pattern and aggregated adoption of the agricultural tractor, the parameters of which were determined using a nonlinear estimation procedure and country-level data for Chile. Using the predictive power of the model, a longitudinal series of tractor fleets was estimated, and then the balance was calculated considering the units that were discharged. To more accurately determine the average lifespan of a tractor, successive iterations were performed to reduce differences with respect to a control variable for the number of tractors registered. The estimated average lifespan for agricultural tractors at the aggregate level is 22 years. This type of estimation procedure can be used not only for descriptive purposes, as in this case, but also for predictive purposes.

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Determining of Agricultural Mechanization Level in Thrace Region by Provinces Abstract

Abdikoğlu

2019

Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım Ve Doğa Dergisi

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Bu çalışmada Türkiye ve Trakya bölgesi ile Edirne, Kırklareli ve Tekirdağ illerinin tarımsal mekanizasyon düzeyi göstergeleri hesaplanarak, 2008-2017 yılları arasındaki mekanizasyon düzeyindeki değişim incelenmiş, iller arasında ve Türkiye ile karşılaştırmalar yapılmıştır. Ayrıca trend analizi ile 2018-2023 yılları için işlenen alana düşen traktör gücü tahmin edilmiştir. Son 10 yılda 1000 ha alana düşen traktör sayısında Türkiye'de %27.9, Trakya bölgesinde %3.7, Edirne'de %13.9 ve Kırklareli'nde %6.1 oranında artış olurken, Tekirdağ'da %5.8 oranında azalma mevcuttur. Bunun nedeni yıllar içerisinde Tekirdağ ilinde traktör sayısındaki artış oranının, işlenen alandaki artış oranı kadar yüksek olmamasıdır. Türkiye'de işlenen alana düşen traktör gücü sürekli artış eğilimde olup 2008 yılında 1.63 kW/ha iken 2017 yılında 2.12 kW/ha'dır. Trakya bölgesinde bu rakam 2008 yılında 2.62 kW/ha iken 2017 yılında 2.80 kW/ha'a yükselmiştir. 2008 yılında traktör başına alet/makine sayısı Türkiye'de 7.68, Trakya bölgesinde 9.18 iken, 2017 yılında Türkiye'de 7.26, Trakya bölgesinde 9.24'tür. Edirne ve Kırklareli illerinde yıllar içinde alet/makine sayısı, traktör sayısına göre daha fazla arttığından traktör başına alet/makine sayısı artmaktadır. Trend analizi sonuçlarına göre işlenen alana düşen traktör gücünün Trakya bölgesinde 2023 yılında 3.01 kW/ha olması tahmin edilmiştir.

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Tractor demand projection in Turkey

Cited by 7 publications

References 8 publications

Relación entre el Parque de Tractores Agrícolas y el Patrón de Difusión y Adopción mediante un Modelo Logístico

Relación entre el Parque de Tractores Agrícolas y el Patrón de Difusión y Adopción mediante un Modelo Logístico

Estimation of the lifespan of agricultural tractor using a diffusion model at the aggregate level

Determining of Agricultural Mechanization Level in Thrace Region by Provinces Abstract

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