Trade Layoffs and Hate in the United States

Abstract

Objective. Recent events (e.g., Brexit) have highlighted how globalization may foster hostility toward out-groups in developed democracies. Is trade competition systematically related to hate in the United States? Methods. I conduct a county-level statistical analysis using data from the Trade Adjustment Assistance program, the FBI's Hate Crime Statistics database, and the Southern Poverty Law Center's hate group map over the period of 2003-2017. Results. Counties with more traderelated layoffs tend to have more hate groups, though not hate crimes, even after accounting for changes in unemployment rates. The relationship between trade layoffs and hate groups is strongest in counties that have recently experienced larger decreases in the share of the white population. Conclusions. Although existing studies on diffuse economic vulnerability and hate find a weak connection between economic factors and hate, trade layoffs can explain some variation in local hate group activity.