Trade-Off Analysis among Multiple Water Uses in a Hydropower System: Case of São Francisco River Basin, Brazil

Mendes, Ludmilson Abritta; Barros, Mario Thadeu Leme de; Zambon, Renato C.; Yeh, William W.‐G.

doi:10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0000527

Cited by 31 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…It can lead to suboptimal reservoir policies if their results are interpreted too prescriptively (Philbrick & Kitanidis, 1999). Yet their ability to formulate and solve complex water resources problems means perfect foresight has remained attractive (Bharati et al, 2008;Fowe et al, 2015;Mendes et al, 2015;Parehkar et al, 2016;Vieira et al, 2011;Yang & Yang, 2013;Zambon et al, 2012;Zarghami et al, 2015). This approach provides a convenient and rigorous method for integrating interannual uncertainty into existing models without having to reformulate them from scratch.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the Economic Value of Interannual Reservoir Storage in Water Resource Systems

Khadem

Rougé

Harou

et al. 2018

Water Resources Research

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Reservoir operators face pressures on timing releases of water. Releasing too much water immediately can threaten future supplies and costs, but not releasing enough creates immediate economic hardship downstream. This paper examines how the economic valuation of end‐of‐year carryover storage can lead to optimal amounts of carryover storage in complex large water resource systems. Economic carryover storage value functions (COSVFs) are developed to represent the value of storage in the face of interannual inflow uncertainty and variability within water resource optimization models. The approach divides a perfect foresight optimization problem into year‐long (limited foresight) subproblems solved sequentially by a within‐year optimization engine to find optimal short‐term operations. The final storage state from the previous year provides the initial condition to each annual problem, and end‐of‐year COSVFs are the final condition. Here the COSVF parameters that maximize the interannual benefits from river basin operations are found by evolutionary search. This generalized approach can handle nonconvexity in large‐scale water resources systems. The approach is illustrated with a regional model of the California Central Valley water system including 30 reservoirs, 22 aquifers, and 51 urban and agricultural demand sites. Head‐dependent pumping costs make the optimization problem nonconvex. Optimized interannual reservoir operation improves over more cautious operation in the historical approximation, reducing the average annual scarcity volume and costs by 80% and 98%, respectively, with more realistic representation of hydrologic foresight for California's Mediterranean climate. The economic valuation of storage helps inform water storage decisions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the Economic Value of Interannual Reservoir Storage in Water Resource Systems

Khadem

Rougé

Harou

et al. 2018

Water Resources Research

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“…In recent years, because of the availability of computational software and their user-friendly interface, NLP has been used widely for optimizing large-scale water resources systems (Barros et al, 2003;Jothiprakash & Arunkumar, 2014;Mendes et al, 2015;Moosavian et al, 2008;Sinha et al, 1999). For example, Barros et al (2003) used NLP to optimize the management and operations of the Brazilian hydropower system, consisting of 75 individual hydropower plants with an installed capacity of 69,375 MW.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimization of Large‐Scale Daily Hydrothermal System Operations With Multiple Objectives

Wang

Cheng

Shen

et al. 2018

Water Resources Research

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This paper proposes a practical procedure for optimizing the daily operation of a large‐scale hydrothermal system. The overall procedure optimizes a monthly model over a period of 1 year and a daily model over a period of up to 1 month. The outputs from the monthly model are used as inputs and boundary conditions for the daily model. The models iterate and update when new information becomes available. The monthly hydrothermal model uses nonlinear programing (NLP) to minimize fuel costs, while maximizing hydropower production. The daily model consists of a hydro model, a thermal model, and a combined hydrothermal model. The hydro model and thermal model generate the initial feasible solutions for the hydrothermal model. The two competing objectives considered in the daily hydrothermal model are minimizing fuel costs and minimizing thermal emissions. We use the constraint method to develop the trade‐off curve (Pareto front) between these two objectives. We apply the proposed methodology on the Yunnan hydrothermal system in China. The system consists of 163 individual hydropower plants with an installed capacity of 48,477 MW and 11 individual thermal plants with an installed capacity of 12,400 MW. We use historical operational records to verify the correctness of the model and to test the robustness of the methodology. The results demonstrate the practicability and validity of the proposed procedure.

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“…The constructions of dams, government programs to offer financial help to farms that have lost crops and livestock are a few examples given by the authors (also HASTENRATH, 2012). More recently the partially conclusion of the São Francisco River water transfer system (DUARTE, 2014;MENDES et al, 2015. ) is another example of the efforts to build resilience in the region, although it hasn't solve the problem yet.…”

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confidence: 99%

An Analysis of Rainfall Extremes in the Northern South America and Their Behaviors for Future Climate Based on A1b Scenario

Fonseca¹,

Veiga

Correia³

et al. 2017

ABClima

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ABSTRACT:The Brazilian Amazon (BAMZ) and Northeast Brazil (NEB) regions have been facing intense climate extremes since the beginning of 21st century. In BAMZ, these climate extremes can modify the Amazon forest and its essential role in the local and remote climate. This study evaluated whether the extreme rainfall events in the both regions will be more intense and frequent in the future due to the increase of greenhouse gas emissions. An adapted version of the RX5day index was applied to distinguish between different types of extreme rainfall cases in the ETA model output for the decade 2089-2099 compared to the 1980-1990 decade. The results have shown that although the total rainfall is expected to be reduced by at least 1/3 (DJF) in the case of rare events, this kind of extreme rainfall will contribute with a higher amount of rainfall and will occur more frequently in both areas by the end of the 21st century. Heavy and very heavy events decrease for both areas (total rainfall amount and frequency). Results suggest that stakeholders must be prepared to cope with the population's need for assistance during floods and rainfall reduction and reinforces the need to adapt to worse climate extremes projections Keywords: Extreme rainfal events, Amazon, Brazilian Northeast, Climate Change, ETA model. ANÁLISE DOS EXTREMOS DE CHUVAS NO NORTE DA AMÉRICA DO SUL E SEUS EFEITOS NO CLIMA FUTURO COM BASE NO CENÁRIO A1BRESUMO: A Amazônia brasileira (BAMZ) e a região nordeste (NEB) têm passado por eventos climáticos extremos desde o inicio do século XXI. Na AMZ esses extremos climáticos comprometem a floresta amazônica e seu papel essencial para o clima local e não local. Esse estudo analisou se os eventos extremos de chuva em ambas as regiões serão mais intensos e frequentes no futuro devido ao aumento dos gases do efeito estufa. Uma versão adaptada do índice RX5day foi utilizada para distinguir entre os diferentes tipos de casos de eventos extremos para os resultados das simulações numéricas, provenientes das simulações com o modelo ETA para a década de 2089-2099 e comparada a década de [1980][1981][1982][1983][1984][1985][1986][1987][1988][1989][1990]. Os resultados mostram que embora se espere uma redução 1/3 no total de chuva (DJF) os eventos do tipo raro irão contribuir com uma quantidade de chuva maior e ocorrerão com mais frequência nas duas áreas no final do século XXI. Eventos forte e muito forte diminuirão nas duas áreas (total de chuva e frequência). Os resultados sugerem que os tomadores de decisão deverão estar _________________Revista Brasileira de Climatologia_________________ ISSN: 1980-055x (Impressa) 2237-8642 (Eletrônica) Ano 13 -Vol. 20 -JAN/JUL 2017 118 preparados para lidar com a necessidade de assistência da população durante as enchentes e redução de chuvas e reforça a necessidade de adaptação para projeções de eventos climáticos piores.Keywords: Chuva extrema, Amazônia, Nordeste Brasileiro, Mudanças Climáticas, Modelo ETA. 1.INTRODUCTIONBrazil has faced two major extreme climate events in this ...

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Trade-Off Analysis among Multiple Water Uses in a Hydropower System: Case of São Francisco River Basin, Brazil

Cited by 31 publications

References 33 publications

Estimating the Economic Value of Interannual Reservoir Storage in Water Resource Systems

Estimating the Economic Value of Interannual Reservoir Storage in Water Resource Systems

Optimization of Large‐Scale Daily Hydrothermal System Operations With Multiple Objectives

An Analysis of Rainfall Extremes in the Northern South America and Their Behaviors for Future Climate Based on A1b Scenario

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