Trade vulnerability assessment in the grain-importing countries: A case study of China

Abstract

Since the 2008 global food crisis, food security vulnerability has been a prominent topic in the food policy debate. However, vulnerability is inherently difficult to conceptualize and is more challenging to operationalize and measure. This study constructs a mathematical model and takes China as a case study to measure the vulnerability and sensitivity of China with its partners in the international grain trade. The results show that 1) the degree of interdependence between China and its grain trading partners is asymmetric, which generates trade vulnerability or economic power; 2) the vulnerability of China’s food trade shows a high spatiotemporal heterogeneity among countries: the higher vulnerability zones are concentrated in North America and Northeast Asia, and the scope of the higher vulnerability zones tends to expand; 3) Our results also reveal that China also has different sensitivities to fluctuations in grain markets from different countries, and the higher sensitive zones of the grain trade in China are mainly distributed in America, Europe, and Oceania. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a methodology for food trade vulnerability assessment and examines the influence of international food trade on food security in importing countries, measured using the vulnerability index and sensitivity index. Nevertheless, the conclusions of this study can be considered preliminary, and there remains great potential for future studies to deepen and broaden our analyses further.

Characterizing the Structural Evolution of Cereal Trade Networks in the Belt and Road Regions: A Network Analysis Approach

“…This reflects the spatial scale dependence effect of international trade relations [54,55], i.e., that the influence of different levels of network cores is differentiated at the global and regional scales. The characteristics of geographical proximity [56] in the cereal trade are confirmed by this paper. The regional cooperation and degree of regional integration profoundly affect international trade relations, especially in cereal trade [21].…”

Vulnerability assessment of food imports—Conceptual framework and empirical application to the case of Switzerland

“…The literature review revealed multiple methods of combining individual factors into an overall vulnerability index: (i) further weighting variables [ 17 ], (ii) subjective weights [ 21 ], or (iii) no weights are used [ [18] , [19] , [20] ]. To overcome these methodological shortcomings, we used PCA to determine the weights for combining these individual factors into a standardized IVI, as previously suggested [ 16 , 22 , 23 ].…”

“…The trade vulnerability of China in the international grain trade has also been assessed [ 19 ]. In the study, the vulnerability index was calculated by dividing a measure of import dependence by a measure of export dependence.…”

The State of Grain Trade between China and Russia: Analysis of Growth Effect and Its Influencing Factors

“…Ukraine and Russia are the largest grain exporters in the Belt and Road region, and China should seize the opportunity to strengthen cooperation. Duan (2021) [17] pointed out that there are differences in the dependence on different trading partners in China's current grain trade, that the grain trade shows vulnerability and high spatial and temporal heterogeneity among countries, and that the vulnerability areas are in North America and Northeast Asia with a likelihood of expanding.…”