Traffic Flow Catastrophe Border Identification for Urban High-Density Area Based on Cusp Catastrophe Theory: A Case Study under Sudden Fire Disaster

Abstract

For traffic management under sudden disasters in high-density areas, the first and foremost step is to prevent traffic congestion in the disaster-affected area by traffic flow management and control, so as to provide enough and flexible traffic capacity for emergency evacuation and emergency rescue. Catastrophe border identification is the foundation and the key to traffic congestion prediction under sudden disaster. This paper uses a mathematical model to study the regional traffic flow in the high-density area under sudden fire disaster based on the Cusp Catastrophe Theory (CCT). The catastrophe border is identified by fitting the CCT-based regional traffic flow model to explore the stable traffic flow changing to the instable state, as to provide a theoretical basis for traffic flow management and control in disaster-affected areas, and to prevent the traffic flow being caught into disorder and congestion. Based on VISSIM simulator data by building simulation scenarios with and without sudden fire disaster in a Sudoku traffic network, the catastrophe border is identified as 439 pcu/lane/h, 529 pcu/lane/h, 377 pcu/lane/h at 5 s, 10 s, 15 s data collection interval in a Sudoku traffic network respectively. The corresponding relative precision, which compares to the method of Capacity Assessment Approach (CAA), is 89.1%, 92.7% and 76.5% respectively. It means that 10 s data collection interval would be the suitable data collection interval in catastrophe border identification and regional traffic flow control in high-density area under sudden fire disaster.

Dynamic Evaluation Method for Mutation Degree of Passenger Flow in Urban Rail Transit

“…Catastrophe theory is widely applied in various fields of emergency research, safety, and performance evaluations, such as control of biological populations [28], evaluations of utilization of water resources [29,30], environmental risk assessments of engineering [31][32][33], evaluation of economic competitiveness [34], and research on material performance [35,36]. In addition, catastrophe theory has also been applied to safety evaluations in the field of transportation [37,38].…”

Evaluating Traffic Operation Conditions during Wildfire Evacuation Using Connected Vehicles Data

“…The population density and traffic infrastructure of the area affected by the fire also have a significant impact on the safe and well-planned evacuation of people. When there is a sudden evacuation, high-density areas can result in increased traffic congestion and longer vehicular queues on the exiting routes, endangering the lives of stranded evacuees [11,12]. The response of the local authorities and first responders is also considered important in determining the behavior of residents during an evacuation.…”

Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation to Assess the Competency of Full-Time Water Conservancy Emergency Rescue Teams

“…(1) There is a lack of research on the competency of full-time water conservancy emergency rescue teams. Scholars have studied fire [35][36][37], safety accidents [28,30] and other emergencies. Considering the special nature of water conservancy, including factors such as seasonality and continuity, research on the competency of full-time water conservancy emergency rescue teams is very important.…”