Trafficking Networks and the Mexican Drug War

Abstract

Drug trade-related violence has escalated dramatically in Mexico since 2007, and recent years have also witnessed large-scale efforts to combat trafficking, spearheaded by Mexico's conservative PAN party. This study examines the direct and spillover effects of Mexican policy towards the drug trade. Regression discontinuity estimates show that drug-related violence increases substantially after close elections of PAN mayors. Empirical evidence suggests that the violence reflects rival traffickers' attempts to usurp territories after crackdowns have weakened incumbent criminals. Moreover, the study uses a network model of trafficking routes to show that PAN victories divert drug traffic, increasing violence along alternative drug routes.

The Economic Consequences of the Mexican Drug War

“…Using a propensity score matching estimator, Merino (2011) concludes that JOs caused 12,046 (52.4%) additional drug-related homicides between 2007 and 2010. By applying a regression discontinuity design on electoral results, Dell (2015) also finds supportive evidence for this causal hypothesis, with a very similar magnitude in municipalities that have a strong presence of DTOs (53.0%).…”

“…However, after the implementation of Calderón's military crackdown, drug-related homicides spiked to over 16,000, eight times more than in 2006. The existing literature suggests that the main causal link between Calderón's military strategy and the spike in drug-related violence was the fragmentation of drug-trafficking organizations, hereinafter DTOs (Calderón et al, 2015;Dell, 2015;Guerrero, 2011;Merino, 2011;Shirk and Wallman, 2015).…”

War and conflict in economics: Theories, applications, and recent trends

“…Dell (2015) examines violence between the Mexican government and drug cartels and finds that crackdowns by the right-wing PAN party account for at least half of the recent increases in Mexican homicides, offering a potential rebuke of hardline political approaches to domestic conflict. Yanagizawa-Drott (2014) show that propaganda can incite Rwandan civilians to violence and can even have spillover effects on those not reached directly.…”

Actores y escenarios como determinantes clave de la política de drogas en Perú. El caso de la implementación del control de hoja de coca en el valle del Monzón (2010-2015)

“…Contextos similares han sido empleados para discutir casos acerca de las limitaciones que tienen algunos Estados para ejercer control sobre su territorio (Dell, 2015). Desde fenómenos de resistencia campesina (Scott, 1985), pasando por los procesos de insurgencia radical (Lombard, 2015;CVR, 2003), hasta la dinámica delincuencial en diversos barrios marginales del continente (Ribando 2014), muchos Estados han tenido dificultades para imponer sus decisiones frente a actores sociales desafiantes (Giraudy y Luna, 2012;Eaton, 2012).…”