Translating transmissibility measures into recommendations for coronavirus prevention

Abstract

The rapid increase in clinical cases of the new coronavirus disease, COVID-19, suggests high transmissibility. However, the estimates of the basic reproductive number reported in the literature vary widely. Considering this, we drew the function of contact-rate reduction required to control the transmission from both detectable and undetectable sources. Based on this, we offer a set of recommendations for symptomatic and asymptomatic populations during the current pandemic. Understanding the dynamics of transmission is essential to support government decisions and improve the community's adherence to preventive measures.

An update on SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 with particular reference to its clinical pathology, pathogenesis, immunopathology and mitigation strategies

“…Work and study activities should be carried out virtually. Still, many commercial activities should be partially restricted [37]. Cases with mild respiratory symptoms should stay at home in respiratory isolation and be treated with hydration and paracetamol if needed.…”

“…Cases with mild respiratory symptoms should stay at home in respiratory isolation and be treated with hydration and paracetamol if needed. Visits to health centres should only be made when justified by the presence of risk factors (underlying severe disease) or warning signs (such as breathing difficulties or cognitive impairment) [37]. Older patients are especially susceptible to complications, and then, this population should be restricted at home.…”

“…However, to reduce transmission, people of all ages must be committed to the prevention, education, and health promotion. Thus, in the absence of vaccines (that will take at least a year) or other preventive strategies, reducing the contact rate will be the only strategy to slow the progression of this pandemic [26,37].…”

“…These measures and the proper support and advice from scientific societies, such as the Brazilian Society of Infectious Diseases, in addition to the international organisations, such as the World Health Organization (WHO), adequately applied, will help to slow the number of new cases expected, will help to decrease them [37]. It is difficult to predict how long these preventive measures must be maintained, but the epidemiological situation should be carefully and closely assessed to redefine strategic intervention approaches.…”

Is it time to talk about the end of social distancing? A joinpoint analysis of COVID-19 time series in Brazilian capitals

“…The rapid increase in COVID-19 clinical cases, characterized by the exponential pattern of the accumulated case curve, suggests that its transmissibility is high, with the basic reproductive number (R 0 ) most likely between two and four 11 . Preventive strategies should aim to reduce this value, and the earlier and more rigorous the adoption of these measures, the more efficient they become 12 .…”