TRAP-18 indicators validated through the forensic linguistic analysis of targeted violence manifestos.

Abstract

This study is a qualitative and quantitative analysis of written and spoken manifestos authored by lone offenders that planned to or committed a targeted attack (n = 30). The acts of violence were primarily motivated by an ideology or a personal grievance, and occurred between 1974-2021. The main objective of this retrospective study was to examine if a behavior-based threat assessment instrument, the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18), could be applied to a thin slice of data using only language evidence compiled by the perpetrator before the event occurred. Findings indicate that 17 out of 18 TRAP-18 indicators (94%) were able to be coded in the manifestos. Proximal warning behaviors ranged from 2 to 7, with an average of 4.5. The average number of distal characteristics was 3.8 across the sample. The most frequent proximal warning behaviors were leakage, identification, fixation, and last resort. The most frequent distal characteristics were changes in thinking and emotion, framed by an ideology, and personal grievance and moral outrage. Further analyses of the manifestos comparing written versus spoken communications, ideologically based versus grievance-fueled attacks, and seven categories of primary motivations, supported the generalizability of the TRAP-18 when applied to only language data. A definition for targeted violence manifestos is proposed and examined within a genre framework. Application to threat assessment and management is discussed. Public Significance StatementThis study analyzed the language of targeted violence manifestos to see if TRAP-18 indicators could be identified in a thin slice of data. Ninety-four percent of the indicators were present, including both proximal warning behaviors, which averaged 4.5 per manifesto, and distal characteristics. A definition for targeted violence manifestos is proposed and examined within a genre framework. Application to threat assessment and management is discussed.

Mental disorder, psychological problems and terrorist behaviour: A systematic review and meta‐analysis

“…Both Bronsard and colleagues (2022) and Lyons and Harbinson (1986) report on point-prevalence rates of diagnosed disorder (at time of assessment) based on clinical interview. The remaining papers F I G U R E 12 Forest plot of studies reporting lifetime rates of psychological problems where problems were onset before detection or involvement F I G U R E 13 Forest plot of studies reporting lifetime prevalence rates of any mental health difficulties where these were onset before detection or involvement reporting on life-time prevalence based on research interview (Dhumad et al, 2020) or open-source data (Capellan 2015;Capellan & Anisin, 2018;Capellan et al, 2019;Kupper & Meloy, 2021).…”

The feasibility and utility of the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18): A review and recommendations.

“…Eleven empirical studies were identified which utilized the TRAP-18 to retroactively evaluate terrorist incidents (Böckler et al, 2021; Brugh et al, 2020; Challacombe & Lucas, 2019; García-Andrade et al, 2019; Goodwill & Meloy, 2019; King et al, 2018; Kupper & Meloy, 2021; Meloy & Gill, 2016; Meloy, Roshdi, et al, 2015; Meloy et al, 2019, 2021). See Table 4, for descriptive information and findings for each of the 11 empirical studies.…”

“…Six case studies were identified which utilized the TRAP-18 retroactively (Böckler et al, 2015; Böckler et al, 2017; Collins & Clark, 2021; Erlandsson & Reid Meloy, 2018; Meloy, Habermeyer, & Guldimann, 2015; Meloy & Genzman, 2016). Eleven studies were identified which utilized the TRAP-18 to retroactively evaluate terrorist incidents (Böckler et al, 2021; Brugh et al, 2020; Challacombe & Lucas, 2019; García-Andrade et al, 2019; Goodwill & Meloy, 2019; King et al, 2018; Kupper & Meloy, 2021; Meloy et al, 2019; Meloy & Gill, 2016; Meloy, Roshdi, et al, 2015; Meloy et al, 2021). All studies in this review involved TRAP-18 indicators being assessed and coded based on past events.…”

“…After de-duplication, there were 10 articles. Eight of them were found in the initial search, two were new articles and added to the review (Collins & Clark, 2021; Kupper & Meloy, 2021). Another article was identified by one of the reviewers of this article (it did not have TRAP-18 in the title or any other permutation; King et al, 2018).…”

“…ALLELY AND WICKS Kupper & Meloy, 2021;Meloy, Roshdi, et al, 2015;Meloy & Gill, 2016;Meloy et al, 2019Meloy et al, , 2021 were co-authored by the developer the TRAP-18 (Dr. Reid Meloy). The large number of studies carried out to date involving the developer of the TRAP-18 is reflective of the fact that the TRAP-18 is a relatively newly developed tool and it not as well known yet among various researchers and professionals as a result.…”